| 四川研究生教育预测模型的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 邵云飞,赵宏辉,唐小我.四川研究生教育预测模型的实证分析[J].预测,2001,20(6):69-72,68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邵云飞 赵宏辉 唐小我 |
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| 作者单位： | 电子科技大学,管理学院,四川,成都,610054 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(79725002) |
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| 摘 要： | 论文在综合考虑四川省研究生教育的历史和现状、所面临的机遇和挑战，及全省经济发展速度的基础上，运用趋势拟合模型、二次指数平滑模型、线性回归模型，预测四川研究生教育在未来10年所应达到的规模。并结合实际对三种预测模型的预测结果进行讨论，分析了各种预测模型的利弊，判断出线性回归模型是较为可取的一种模型。从而得出研究生招生规模应量力而行的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 研究生教育 趋势拟合 指数平滑 线性回归 四川省 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2001)06-0069-04 |
The Empirical Analyses of Graduate Education Predicting Models in Sichuan |
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| SHAO Yun fei,ZHAO Hong huei,TANG Xiao wo.The Empirical Analyses of Graduate Education Predicting Models in Sichuan[J].Forecasting,2001,20(6):69-72,68. |
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| Authors: | SHAO Yun fei ZHAO Hong huei TANG Xiao wo |
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| Abstract: | This paper comprehensively consider the history and present situation, the chance and challenge of graduate education in Sichuan, as well as, based on the velocity of economic development there, we predict the scale of Sichuan graduate education in the following ten years, by using trend fitting model, by using square exponential smoothing model, by using linear regression analysis model. Further more, according to the reality, we discuss the results of three predict model above, analyze the gains and losses of each model, and find out that linear regression analysis model is the best relatively. from there, we draw the conclusion that the scale of graduate admission should be proper according to actual circumstances. |
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| Keywords: | graduate education trend fitting exponential smoothing lineal regression |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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