| 经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 田明华,万莉.经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗的影响研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(3):522-533. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田明华 万莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083,北京大学环境与能源学院, 深圳 518055 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目:"低碳经济下中国木质林产品贸易政策转型研究"(编号:13YJA790106);国家社会科学基金重大项目:"我国西部林业生态建设政策评价与体系完善研究"(编号:11&ZD042) |
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| 摘 要： | 随着全球生态危机加剧,森林的生态环境功能日益突出,全球森林数量持续减少、质量不断下降,使涉嫌消耗大量木材的经济发展、林产品贸易备受争议。本文以木材消耗作为森林资源的压力指标,分析了影响木材消耗的关键因素,以世界具有代表性的61个国家2010年的相关截面数据,运用多元线性回归模型,进行了实证分析,结果表明:经济发展对木材消耗的影响为正,人均木材消耗指标与经济发展指标呈现一种向右上方倾斜的N形关系;林产品出口贸易与木材消耗的关系为负向,有利于减少人均木材消耗;林产品进口贸易与木材消耗的关系为正向,但相较于使用本国木材来说更有利于减少人均木材消耗;木材产量与木材消耗同方向变化,是影响人均木材消耗的最为显著的因素;林产品贸易规模、森林资源的丰富程度以及技术进步因素的影响不显著。据此,本文从世界和中国林业发展的角度提出了林产品贸易自由化、保持木材供应适度偏紧等相关建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 木材消耗 经济发展 国际贸易 木质林产品 |
Effects of economic development and forest product trade on wood consumption |
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| TIAN Minghua and WAN Li.Effects of economic development and forest product trade on wood consumption[J].Resources Science,2015,37(3):522-533. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Minghua and WAN Li |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China and School of Environment and Energy, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China |
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| Abstract: | With increasingly serious ecological crises, forest ecological and environmental functions have become more and more prominent. For example, economic development and forest product trade have become a focus for solving forest problems. However, research on the effects of economic development and forest product trade on forest resources has not reached a definite conclusion. Considering defects in previous studies which put the rate of forest resource change or the rate of deforestation as the environmental pressure index of forest resources, we used wood consumption as the environmental pressure index of forest resources. In open economic conditions we analyze the factors that affect wood consumption, such as economic development, forest products trade, timber supply and technology progress. We used multiple linear regression models based on 61 representative countries' cross-section data in 2010. The result shows that the impact of economic development on wood consumption is positive; indicators of wood consumption and economic development show an upward sloping of type N. The relationship between forest product export trade and wood consumption is negative, so forest product export trade helps to reduce wood consumption. The impact of forest product import trade on wood consumption is positive, but compared with the use of native wood, forest product import trade is more conducive to reducing wood consumption. Wood production and wood consumption changes in the same direction, wood production is the most significant factor for wood consumption. Factors of forest products trade scale, rich degree of forest resources, and technical progress are insignificant to wood consumption. According to these results, we put forward suggestions from forestry development globally and for China, including forest product trade liberalization and keeping wood supply at moderately tight levels. |
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| Keywords: | wood consumption economic development international trade wooden forest products |
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