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| 水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真 | |
| 引用本文： | 卢超,王蕾娜,张东山,张亚雷.水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真[J].资源科学,2011,33(8):1498-1504. |
| 作者姓名： | 卢超 王蕾娜 张东山 张亚雷 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海,200092 2. 同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海,200092 3. 同济大学现代农业科学与工程研究院,上海,200092 |
| 基金项目： | 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重点项目：“小城镇饮用水安全技术标准与应急处理工艺研究”(编号：2006BAJ08B10)。 |
| 摘 要： | 水资源承载力是影响缺水小城镇经济发展的重要因素。构建小城镇地区水资源和经济社会耦合研究的系统动力学模型,能够动态分析和预测水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济持续发展的规模、产业结构及人口数量。以我国内陆缺水小城镇——内蒙古自治区太仆寺旗为例的系统动力学仿真和情景分析表明：随着经济规模的扩张和人口的增加,太仆寺旗逐渐由工程型缺水转变为资源型缺水;协调发展模式是太仆寺旗在水资源承载力约束下经济社会持续发展的最优选择。同时,论文从调整农业种植结构、调整工业生产结构和建立公民节水体系三方面提出了太仆寺旗构建节水型经济社会体系的对策,可以为小城镇持续发展提供借鉴 |
| 关 键 词： | 水资源承载力 小城镇 系统动力学 仿真 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/7/2011 12:00:00 AM |
System Dynamics Simulation of Small Towns’ Economy under the Constraints of Water Resources’ Carrying Capacity |
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| LU Chao,WANG Lein,ZHANG Dongshan and ZHANG Yalei.System Dynamics Simulation of Small Towns’ Economy under the Constraints of Water Resources’ Carrying Capacity[J].Resources Science,2011,33(8):1498-1504. | |
| Authors: | LU Chao WANG Lein ZHANG Dongshan and ZHANG Yalei |
| Institution: | School of Economics & Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;Institute of Modern Agricultural Science & Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China |
| Abstract: | With rapid urbanization and serious water scarcity in China, carrying capacity of water resources has become an important factor affecting economic development of small towns. As the main model to simulate complex giant systems, system dynamics seems to be suitable for long-term, dynamic and macro-quantitative analysis and simulation study. According to the theory of system dynamics, exploring and applying the optimal pattern of economic growth under the constraints of water resources is the key for sustain... |
| Keywords: | Carrying capacity of water resources Small town System dynamics Simulation |
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