Solving the Tacking Problem with Contrast Classes |
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| Authors: | Chandler Jake |
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| Institution: | CPNSS, Lakatos Building, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE UK |
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| Abstract: | The traditional Bayesian qualitative account of evidential support(TB) takes assertions of the form ‘E evidentially supportsH’ to affirm the existence of a two-place relation ofevidential support between E and H. The analysans given forthis relation is C(H,E) =def Pr(H|E) > Pr(H). Now it is wellknown that when a hypothesis H entails evidence E, not onlyis it the case that C(H,E), but it is also the case that C(H&X,E)for any arbitrary X. There is a widespread feeling that thisis a problematic result for TB. Indeed, there are a number ofcases in which many feel it is false to assert ‘E evidentiallysupports H&X’, despite H entailing E. This is known,by those who share that feeling, as the ‘tacking problem’for Bayesian confirmation theory. After outlining a generalizationof the problem, I argue that the Bayesian response has so farbeen unsatisfactory. I then argue the following: (i) There exists,either instead of, or in addition to, a two-place relation ofconfirmation, a three-place, ‘contrastive’ relationof confirmation, holding between an item of evidence E and twocompeting hypotheses H1 and H2. (ii) The correct analysans ofthe relation is a particular probabilistic inequality, abbreviatedC(H1, H2, E). (iii) Those who take the putative counterexamplesto TB discussed to indeed be counterexamples are interpretingthe relevant utterances as implicitly contrastive, contrastingthe relevant hypothesis H1 with a particular competitor H2.(iv) The probabilistic structure of these cases is such that C(H1, H2, E). This solves my generalization of the tacking problem.I then conclude with some thoughts about the relationship betweenthe traditional Bayesian account of evidential support and myproposed account of the three-place relation of confirmation.- 1 The ‘tacking problem’ and the traditional Bayesianresponse
- 2 Contrastive support
- 3 Concluding comments
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