| Short Report： Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma： association with heliogeophysical activity |
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| 作者姓名： | Dimitrov BD Rachkova MI Atanassova PA |
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| 作者单位： | [1]BORDANI, Alzano Lombardo （BG） 24022, Italy [2]Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, Medical University, Plovdiv 4000, Bulgaria [3]ASSON-93 Research Co., Mount Prospect, ILL 60056, USA [4]Department of Neurology, Medical University, Plovdiv 4000, Bulgaria |
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| 基金项目： | Project partially supported by the European Community TEMPUS International Mobility Grant (No. 3604) in 1996 (UK) and Youth Scientific Association "Asklepios" Grant in 1997 (Bulgaria) |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 黑色素瘤 皮肤 活性 手术治疗 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008 Mar 11 |
Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity |
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| Dimitrov BD,Rachkova MI,Atanassova PA.Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity[J].Journal of Zhejiang University Science,2008,9(6):489-495. |
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| Authors: | Dimitrov Borislav D Rachkova Mariana I Atanassova Penka A |
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| Institution: | (1) BORDANI, Alzano Lombardo (BG), 24022, Italy;(2) Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, Medical University, Plovdiv, 4000, Bulgaria;(3) ASSON-93 Research Co., Mount Prospect, ILL 60056, USA;(4) Department of Neurology, Medical University, Plovdiv, 4000, Bulgaria |
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| Abstract: | Background: Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx: 172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50～7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences com-pared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT= 2, 4, 6, 10 or 12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity. Methods: Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964～1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied. Results: Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various 'hypercycles' were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT= 6 and 7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=-10 and 9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed. Conclusion: The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors could not only allow for better forecasting models but also lead to a better understanding of melanoma aetiology. |
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| Keywords: | Melanoma incidence Cyclicity Heliogeophysical activity (HGA) Forecasting Skin neurobiology |
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