| 国家生命周期与中国崛起 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡鞍钢.国家生命周期与中国崛起[J].教学与研究,2006,11(1):7-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡鞍钢 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院-清华大学,国情研究中心,北京,100084 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文借鉴产品生命周期理论,提出国家生命周期理论,并对几个大国崛起的历程进行比较分析。本文认为,从世界现代经济发展历史看,的确存在国家发展生命周期,大体有四个或五个阶段。一个国家的兴起可能是由于国家之间竞争,从被动响应到主动响应,从模仿创新到主动创新;反之,一个国家的衰落可能是由于国家之间竞争,创新能力减弱,甚至消逝。这一国家发展生命周期理论,既可以解释其他国家的发展历史轨迹,也可以解释中国发展的历史轨迹;既可以解释中国为何从强大到衰落,也可以解释为什么中国从衰落再到强大。作者指出,国家生命周期的决定性因素就是能否创新,能否持续创新、不断创新和鼓励创新是国家崛起的背后动因。
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| 关 键 词： | 国家生命周期 中国崛起 大国历史比较 |
| 文章编号： | 0257-2826(2006)01-0007-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月5日 |
Life Cycle of a Country and the Rise of China |
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| HU An-gang.Life Cycle of a Country and the Rise of China[J].Teaching and Research,2006,11(1):7-17. |
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| Authors: | HU An-gang |
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| Abstract: | This paper puts forward a theoretical paradigm of the life cycle of a country by drawing on the theory of the life cycle of production,and analyzes the historical process of the rise of some big powers.The author argues that there does exist a life cycle for a country from the perspective of modern economic development in the world.The rise of a country can be prompted by international competitions through inactively to actively responding to competitions,and through imitating to initiating innovation;In the same sense,the fall of a country can be caused by international competitions that lead to declining or even loss of innovation capacity.This theory of life cycle can be applied to historical development of other countries as well as the historical development of China.It can also be applied to explain China's fall or rise.The author points out that the determinant factor of the life cycle of a country lies in its capacity of innovation.And the driving force behind the rise of a country depends on whether innovation is sustained and encouraged in that country. |
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| Keywords: | life cycle of a country the rise of China comparison of the history of big powers |
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