Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation |
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| Authors: | Philip A Ebert |
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| Institution: | 1. Division of Law and Philosophy, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK;2. Behavioural Science Centre, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK |
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| Abstract: | In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons critically. Lastly, I highlight a number of challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective in their curriculum. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian reasoning avalanche decision-making avalanche education base-rate fallacy snow science risk management |
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