| 气候变化对安徽黄山市旅游的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘俊,李云云.气候变化对安徽黄山市旅游的影响研究[J].安徽广播电视大学学报,2015(3):36-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘俊 李云云 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学旅游学院,四川成都,610065 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金项目(项目编号41101115)；安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(项目编号B2015017)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 旅游业对气候变化极为敏感。基于1956－2010年黄山市气候数据，采用旅游气候舒适度综合评价模型计算了黄山市气候舒适度；结合2007－2010年黄山市游客量数据，采用O L S方法建立气候舒适度指数与游客量指数间的回归模型。结果表明，气候变化对安徽省黄山市旅游产生影响显著。其中，对国内旅游市场的影响超过了对入境旅游市场的影响，气候舒适度指数每变化1单位，入境游客量指数变化1.25％，国内游客量指数变化1.49％。研究结果可为提出安徽旅游业应对气候变化策略提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 黄山市 旅游业 影响与适应 |
In Influence and Adaptation of Climate Change to Tourism of Huangshan City in Anhui Province |
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| Abstract: | Tourism is very sensitive to climate change .Based on the climate date of Huangshan city from 1956 to 2010 ,the article analyzes the climate comfort degree of Huangshan city by the Tourism Climate Comfort Degree Evaluation Model .Then combining the tourist date of Huangshan city from 2007 to 2010 , the regression model between climate comfort degree and the tourist amount index is established by the Ordi‐nary Least Squares (OLS) method .The result suggests that climate change has a significant influence on the tourism industry in Huangshan city ,which is greater on domestic tourist market than on abroad market . When the climate comfort index varies every one unit ,the overseas tourist index varies 1 .25% ,and the do‐mestic tourist index varies 1 .49% .The research will provide scientific basis for Anhui tourism industry to a‐dapt to the climate change . |
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| Keywords: | climate change Huangshan city tourism influence and adaptation |
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