Estimating the accuracies of journal impact factor through bootstrap |
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| Institution: | 1. Science Education Center, National Taiwan Normal University, No. 88, 4th Section, Ting-Chou Road, Wen-Shan District, Taipei City 11677, Taiwan, ROC;2. Work-based Education Research Centre (WERC), Victoria Institute for Education, Diversity and Lifelong Learning, Victoria University, PO Box 14428, Melbourne, VIC 8001, Australia;1. The Graduate School of Public Policy and Information Technology, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 172 Gongreung 2-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul 139-746, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, 300 Chunchun-dong, Jangan-gu, Kyunggi-do 440-746, Republic of Korea;1. Centre for Research & Development Monitoring (ECOOM), University of Antwerp, Middelheimlaan 1, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium;2. Department of Research Affairs and Centre for Research & Development Monitoring (ECOOM), University of Antwerp, Middelheimlaan 1, 2020 Antwerp, Belgium;3. Antwerp Maritime Academy, Noordkasteel-Oost 6, 2030 Antwerp, Belgium;1. Eindhoven University of Technology, Netherlands;2. University of York, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | The journal impact factor (JIF) reported in journal citation reports has been used to represent the influence and prestige of a journal. Whereas the consideration of the stochastic nature of a statistic is a prerequisite for statistical inference, the estimation of JIF uncertainty is necessary yet unavailable for comparing the impact among journals. Using journals in the Database of Research in Science Education (DoRISE), the current study proposes bootstrap methods to estimate the JIF variability. The paper also provides a comprehensive exposition of the sources of JIF variability. The collections of articles in the year of interest and in the preceding years both contribute to JIF variability. In addition, the variability estimate differs depending on the way a database selects its journals for inclusion. In the bootstrap process, the nested structure of articles in a journal was accounted for to ensure that each bootstrap replication reflects the actual citation characteristics of articles in the journal. In conclusion, the proposed point and interval estimates of the JIF statistic are obtained and more informative inferences on the impact of journals can be drawn. |
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| Keywords: | Bootstrap Journal impact factor Error estimation Education Citation index |
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