Regularity in the time-dependent distribution of the percentage of never-cited papers: An empirical pilot study based on the six journals |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Scientific & Technical Information of China, Beijing, China;2. School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;1. Rathenau Institute, Science System Assessment, Anna van Saksenlaan 51, 2593 HW The Hague, The Netherlands;2. VU University Amsterdam, Network Institute & Department of Organization Science, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;3. GRIPS – National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, 7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-867, Japan;4. Université Paris-Est, ESIEE – LATTS – IFRIS, 2, bd Blaise Pascal, Noisy le Grand 93160, France;5. CNRS – Aix-Marseille Université, LEST UMR 7317, 35 Avenue Jules Ferry, 13626 Aix en Provence Cedex 01, France;1. Division for Science and Innovation Studies, Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society, Hofgartenstr. 8, 80539 Munich, Germany;2. Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR), University of Amsterdam, Kloveniersburgwal 48, 1012 CX Amsterdam, The Netherlands;3. Institute for Research Information and Quality Assurance (iFQ), Schützenstraße 6a, 10117 Berlin, Germany;4. Center for R&D Monitoring (ECOOM) and Department of Managerial Economics, Strategy and Innovation, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Waaistraat 6, 3000 Leuven, Belgium;1. CNR-CERIS, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Economic Research on Firm and Growth, via Real Collegio, 30, I-10024 Moncalieri (TO), Italy;2. University of Torino, Department of Chemistry, via P. Giuria, 7, I-10125 Torino, Italy;1. Laboratory for Studies of Research and Technology Transfer, Institute for System Analysis and Computer Science (IASI-CNR), National Research Council of Italy, Italy;2. Italian National Agency for the Evaluation of Universities and Research Institutes (ANVUR), Italy;3. Department of Management and Engineering University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Italy |
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| Abstract: | The non-citation rate refers to the proportion of papers that do not attract any citation over a period of time following their publication. After reviewing all the related papers in Web of Science, Google Scholar and Scopus database, we find the current literature on citation distribution gives more focus on the distribution of the percentages and citations of papers receiving at least one citation, while there are fewer studies on the time-dependent patterns of the percentage of never-cited papers, on what distribution model can fit their time-dependent patterns, as well as on the factors influencing the non-citation rate. Here, we perform an empirical pilot analysis to the time-dependent distribution of the percentages of never-cited papers in a series of different, consecutive citation time windows following their publication in our selected six sample journals, and study the influence of paper length on the chance of papers’ getting cited. Through the above analysis, the following general conclusions are drawn: (1) a three-parameter negative exponential model can well fit time-dependent distribution curve of the percentages of never-cited papers; (2) in the initial citation time window, the percentage of never-cited papers in each journal is very high. However, as the citation time window becomes wider and wider, the percentage of never-cited papers begins to drop rapidly at first, and then drop more slowly, and the total degree of decline for most of journals is very large; (3) when applying the wider citation time windows, the percentage of never-cited papers for each journal begins to approach a stable value, and after that value, there will be very few changes in these stable percentages, unless we meet a large amount of “Sleeping Beauties” type papers; (4) the length of an paper has a great influence on whether it will be cited or not. |
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| Keywords: | Percentage of uncited papers Citation distribution Regularity in time-dependent distribution Influencing factors Negative exponential model Journal |
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