| 典型农业前瞻案例中情景分析法的应用分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 邢颖,董瑜,袁建霞,张博,杨艳萍,张薇.典型农业前瞻案例中情景分析法的应用分析[J].图书情报工作,2014,58(7):95-99. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 邢颖 董瑜 袁建霞 张博 杨艳萍 张薇 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院文献情报中心 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 本文系中国科学院重点部署项目“保障粮食安全和现代农业发展的政策研究”(项目编号：KSZD-EW-Z-021)研究成果之一。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过分析近年来重要国际机构开展的若干农业和粮食系统的前瞻工作，系统研究情景分析法的应用情况，包括情景研究类型、情景分析流程及情景构建技术，并总结情景分析法在典型农业前瞻实践中的特点。分析表明，典型农业前瞻的情景分析按不同角度分类有多种类型，其流程随定性或定量分析类别不同有一定差异，情景的构建和分析综合采取多种方法与技术，尤其与模型应用紧密联系。
|
| 关 键 词： | 情景分析 情景构建 农业前瞻 粮食安全 农业发展 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-02-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-03-20 |
Investigation of Scenario Analysis in Typical Agricultural Foresight Cases |
| |
| Xing Ying,Dong Yu,Yuan Jianxia,Zhang Bo,Yang Yanping,Zhang Wei.Investigation of Scenario Analysis in Typical Agricultural Foresight Cases[J].Library and Information Service,2014,58(7):95-99. |
| |
| Authors: | Xing Ying Dong Yu Yuan Jianxia Zhang Bo Yang Yanping Zhang Wei |
| |
| Institution: | National Science Library of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 |
| |
| Abstract: | Focusing on the method of scenario analysis, this study gives a systematic analysis on the application of scenario analysis in several typical agricultural foresight researches carried out by remarkable international institutions in recent years, with the emphasis on the elaboration of scenario typologies, scenario processing and approaches of scenario construction. It shows that for the typical agricultural foresight cases, scenario types were multiple and scenario processing was different between the quality scenario analysis and quantity scenario analysis. The scenario construction and development applied multiple technologies, with the highlight of drivers analysis and employment of models. |
| |
| Keywords: | scenario analysis scenario construction agricultural foresight food security agricultural development |
|
| 点击此处可从《图书情报工作》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《图书情报工作》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
