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1.
在概率论中 ,一个概率很小的事件称为小概率事件 .一般称概率在 0 0 5以下的事件为小概率事件 .根据实际需要 ,人们有时选取 0 .0 1、0 .0 2 5、0 .0 0 5、或其它的很小的数作为小概率 .所谓小概率事件的原则是 :如果一个事件发生的概率很小 ,那么在一次试验中 ,实际上可把它看成不可能发生的 .由这一原则可知 ,如果在一次试验中 ,某个小概率事件竟然发生了 ,那么就可认为是一种不正常现象 ,在实际中要引起我们的注意 .下面介绍小概率事件原则在实际应用的几例 ,供教学参考 .例 1 在城镇的衔头有时看到这样的赌摊 :摊主备有标注‘10分’与… 相似文献
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在CS战略帮助企业获得更多竞争优势的同时,企业常常会陷入“高满意指数、高投诉率”的“顾客满意陷阱”当中,造成CS战略实施失效。本文应用双因素理论,系统整理了导致顾客不满意的因素,并通过故障树分析法对顾客不满意因素进行研究,找出了各因素间的逻辑关系及导致顾客不满意的所有原因组合,在此基础上应用蒙特卡罗仿真和“20—80”原则确定了导致顾客不满意的关键底事件和关键最小割集。通过仿真．进一步证明了改进关键底事件,可以降低关键底事件的发生概率,进而降低顾客不满意发生概率,从而证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。 相似文献
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<正>1引言小概率事件在人们生活中是有可能发生的,但是发生的可能性非常小,更无规律可循.最近的时政新闻:马来西亚飞往首都北京MH370航班失联给人带来悲伤的教训提醒我们不能忽视现实生活中小概率事件发生的不规律性.这样的事件恰符合小概率事件的原理特征.我们知道小概率事件在一次试验当中几乎是不可能发生的,因此人们会出现有两种截然不同的态度对待小概率事件:一种是对待小概率事件不闻不问,不太愿意承认小概率事件的发生;另一种是更愿意承认它的发生,如彩民购买彩票盼着中头奖,整 相似文献
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概率是指事件发生的可能性大小．通常我们说某个不确定事件发生的可能性大．就说这事件发生的概率大；某个不确定事件发生的可能性小，就说这事件发生的概率小． 相似文献
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本文利用小概率事件原理对日常生活中常见的小概率事件进行了分析探讨,揭示了小概率事件发生现象背后所隐藏的真实背景. 相似文献
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傅自晦 《兰州教育学院学报》1985,(2)
概率论中所谓小概率事件,即为概率很小的事件。(所谓大小,自然是相对而言,不同的实际问题,有不同的大小标准)而小概率事件原则说的是“小概率事件在一次试验中几乎是不可能发生的。”这个原则是概率论,尤其是数理统计中一个重要而基本的原则,可以说 相似文献
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一 条件概率:定义与计算 §1.1 条件概率 在本刊今年第一期的“教育科研中的概率问题及其计算”一文中(以下简称文一),我们介绍了普通的概率问题,即某一事件A发生的概率P(A)的定义及其计算方法。在该文中我们没有提及或用到任何与事件A发生有关的信息,而是隐含地假定事件A发生与否和其它事件发生与否无关,因此也可以称P(A)为无条件或绝对的概率,即事件A无条件或绝对地发生的概率。 相似文献
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周少强 《广西大学梧州分校学报》1996,(1)
在概率统计中,所谓“事件流”是指一连串的事件,这些事件是在偶然的时刻发(?)的(?)一个事件流如果具有下列三个特点则称为最简流(或称泊松流),这三个特点是稳平性,无后效性和普通性。1、平稳性,是指无论在什么样的时间间隔内到件发生K次的概率,仅仅依赖于数k和时间间隔的长度t。它与时间原点的选取无关。也就是说,事件发生K次的概率是时间间隔的长度t的函数,而且只依赖于K和t。2、无后效性,是指无论在什么样的时间间隔内,事件发生K次的概率,个依赖于起点以前在氏度为t的时间间隔内事件发生与否,即前面的事件流不会影响最近将发生的事件流的概率。3、普通性,是指在很短时间间隔内,事件发生两次或更多次是不可能的,也就是说,在很短的时间间隔内,事件发生多于一次的概率与事件只发生一次的概率相比能小到可以忽峪不计的程度。事件流的强度λ是指每个单位时间内平均发生的事件数。我们把具有稳定性质的事件流,你为平稳流,不具有稳定性质的事件流,称为非平稳流。如果最简流的强度λ为已知,则在时间间隔t内事件发生K次的概率,可用泊松公式确定 相似文献
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In two experiments, one hundred and sixty-two 6- to 8-year-olds were asked to reason counterfactually about events with different causal structures. All events involved overdetermined outcomes in which two different causal events led to the same outcome. In Experiment 1, children heard stories with either an ambiguous causal relation between events or causally unrelated events. Children in the causally unrelated version performed better than chance and better than those in the ambiguous condition. In Experiment 2, children heard stories in which antecedent events were causally connected or causally disconnected. Eight-year-olds performed above chance in both conditions, whereas 6-year-olds performed above chance only in the connected condition. This work provides the first evidence that children can reason counterfactually in causally overdetermined contexts by age 8. 相似文献
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周艳 《天津职业院校联合学报》2004,6(4):113-115
近来,跨国公司根据其全球战略的需要,结合中国在加入世贸组织背景下的新战略、新政策,以及自己在华投资的经验和教训,纷纷调整在华发展战略,积极参与在华投资竞争与合作。我们要抓住这一难得的大好时机,更加积极、合理、有效地开展招商引资活动,营造理想的引资环境,为我国的经济建设服务。 相似文献
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Kim Namhee Baek Pyounggu 《International Journal for Educational and Vocational Guidance》2020,20(3):613-634
We investigated South Korean workers’ reflections on career chance events in terms of types of chance occurrences and factors that influence how these are reacted to. A critical incident technique was used to collect data from 85 participants using an open-ended questionnaire. Various types of events that happened unexpectedly were identified through a two-dimensional framework: whether an event was relationship based or experienced based, and whether it occurred in personal areas or work areas. Influencing factors that affected the participants’ reactions were also categorized using a two-dimensional framework: internal or external, and facilitating or discouraging dimensions.
相似文献14.
经济全球化下产业集群化趋势及我国的对策 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在经济全球化进程中，许多产业更倾向于从一个区域转移到另一个区域内的集聚。产业集群化的原因主要有国家作用的弱化，区域作用的强化，跨国公司的本地化战略，创新与扩散的本地化趋势，以及本地化劳动力市场的发展。经济全球化扩大了产业集群的产业范围，延伸了产业集群与外部的交流与合作，扩大了区域网络的连接范围，增加了区域劳动力的就业机会，促进了产业集群内部的竞争。区域政府必须顺应经济全球化趋势，促进本地区产业集群的发展。 相似文献
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The role of chance in talent development appears in the gifted education literature and also in lay discussions of high ability. Nevertheless, chance as a factor in talent development is frequently misunderstood. This analysis scrutinizes some common beliefs and scholarly perspectives on the effects of chance in the development of high ability, and reveals some shortcomings of these conceptions. In addition various research initiatives are proposed that can redress the current lack of empirical evidence to support or refute particular actions and theories of chance. These initiatives should include the development of a taxonomy of chance events and of quantitative measures of the impact of chance on talent development processes. Overall, such work should generate more accurate conceptions of this fascinating causal factor. 相似文献
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A primer of research on cognitive strategy instruction: The important issues and how to address them
Michael Pressley Vera Woloshyn Linda M. Lysynchuk Vicky Martin Eileen Wood Teena Willoughby 《Educational Psychology Review》1990,2(1):1-58
Five types of strategy research are reviewed. (1) We argue it makes sense first to determine whether there is a need for strategy instruction. If there is, (2) development of a treatment with preliminary evaluations can follow, as can (3) formal evaluation of the resultant intervention in true experiments. As instructional need research, strategy development, and experimental evaluation proceed, two other types of research should be conducted. (4) It is important to study the acceptability of strategy interventions to educators and students. (5) Research on material modifications can provide information about how strategy benefits can be made available to students when strategy instruction is not effective or unlikely to occur. Very little strategy instruction has been evaluated in all five types of research covered here, making obvious the need for more systematic research on strategies. Observational, ethnographic, and experimental methods are required in order to address the many issues comprising comprehensive empirical analysis of any type of strategy instruction, with many recommendations made here about how to conduct informative studies. 相似文献
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Sue Shepherd 《Perspectives: Policy and Practice in Higher Education》2017,21(4):129-134
Pre-1992 English universities are changing the way they appoint their deputy and pro-vice-chancellors (PVCs). Traditionally, PVC posts were filled by internal secondment from within the professoriate, but these days an increasing number are appointed by means of external open competition involving advertisement and/or executive search. So has this ‘opening up’ of PVC positions created new career progression opportunities for professional services managers? Findings from a census, online survey and interviews with a range of senior university managers suggest not. Despite the PVC role becoming more managerial, those getting the jobs remain overwhelmingly career academics. Professional services managers confront a glass wall, excluded from consideration by a non-negotiable requirement for academic credibility. Aware they have little chance of getting a PVC job, they are unlikely to apply. The continued monopolisation of PVC posts by academic managers represents a form of social closure that serves to maintain their elite status. 相似文献
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Education researchers want to influence classroom practice, but in-service primary teachers are hard to reach. Thus, many researchers disseminate their innovations online. Dissemination by event may be a more effective means, but little is known about its relative value in a dissemination strategy, nor potential influence upon research innovation downloads.This quantitative study analysed the influence of dissemination events on downloads of a research innovation called the TAPS Pyramid over one year. The location, size and date for dissemination events were mapped against location data for downloads during the same time period. Downloads were significantly higher in regions where dissemination events were held and positively correlated with dissemination event frequency. Event size was not found to be significant.By demonstrating the value of dissemination events in stimulating downloads of educational research innovations online, these results also show the centrality of social learning opportunities to a successful bimodal dissemination strategy. 相似文献
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基于核心竞争力的大学特色战略方向的选择 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
王连森 《山西财经大学学报(高等教育版)》2004,7(4):8-11
在竞争环境中，为赢得竞争优势，以求生存和发展，大学必须重视大学竞争战略的规划和实施。文章分析了大学面临的竞争力量和发展态势，提出了大学竞争的特色战略，并在特色战略方向划分的基础上对如何选择特色方向做了研究。 相似文献
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当前中亚五国政治形势及未来走向 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
孙壮志 《新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2012,33(3):22-28
中亚国家政治局势基本保持稳定,但也出现了一系列比较复杂的问题,如突发的群体性事件和恐怖事件依旧困扰着各国政府。中亚国家坚持世俗化的政治制度,而下层则出现了伊斯兰教迅速复兴的状况,极端势力对中亚国家来说是现行政权的最大敌人。尽管领导人的稳定对政局的稳定是有利的,但这种稳定如果没有社会公平、和睦作为支撑,就是比较脆弱的。虽然政治领域中的不稳定因素尚存,但中亚国家得到了喘息的机会,能否在后危机时期积极解决民生问题,避免极端势力和社会矛盾破坏稳定大局,成为未来的重要任务。中亚五国在近期内政治局势将继续保持基本稳定,但面临的政治风险将会进一步增大。 相似文献