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1.
Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates. 相似文献
2.
Three aspects of the ‘most important problem’ questionused in agenda-setting research to measure issue salience amongthe public were examined. A split-ballot design in a state-widesurvey compared versions of the public agenda with a socialframe of reference versus a personal frame of reference, versionsusing the traditional term ‘problem’ versus ‘issue’,and the effects of question order. High correlations betweenthe different versions were found in all three sets of comparisons. 相似文献
3.
This paper presents the results of a relatively large numberof public opinion surveys conducted in Britain during the Gulfcrisis—August 1990 to February 1991—many at weeklyintervals. The questions detailed here not only dealt with publicattitudes to the crisis itself but on its impact on the perceptionof the superpowers and the Arab world; again comparative trends,stretching back for almost forty years. There is also a discussionof the Gulf crisis and the British domestic political situation—wouldthe so-called ‘Falklands effect’ of 1982-1983 bereplicated by a ‘Gulf effect’ in 1991? This collectionof surveys probably represents one of the largest databaseson the topic in Britain. The paper shows a fairly stable positionof public opinion during the crisis; an improvement in the imageof the United States but a deterioration in that of the SovietUnion; but no significant effect on the British domestic politicalscene. 相似文献
4.
Rusciano Frank Louis; Fiske-Rusciano Roberta 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1990,2(4):305-322
This paper presents a content analysis of the manner in which‘world opinion’ is used in stories and editorialsof two nations' major newspapers. The authors studied the InternationalHerald Tribune and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung for themonths of February, March, and April 1986 for articles whichcontained implicit or explicit references to ‘world opinion’.These refernces were studied using a pre-designed survey instrument,which analyzed several features of the term's usage. Topicsfor discussion included: (1) the various syonyms for world opinion;(2) the agenda for world opinion; (3) the timing of referenceto particular issues on the agenda; (4) the moral and pragmaticcomponents of world opinion; and (5) the link between worldopinion and the ‘international isolation’ of nationsor individuals. The paper concludes by combining the resultsof the study into a preliminary definition of ‘world opinion’,based upon the common usage of this term. The definition comparesthe characteristics of ‘world opinion’ and ‘publicopinion’, and discusses the possible ramifications ofunderstanding the concept in this manner. 相似文献
5.
This study investigated the extent to which the third-personeffect—the tendency of people to estimate greater impactof media messages on ‘other people’ than on themselves—mightdepend upon question-contrast effects (i.e. self-serving comparisonstriggered by back-to-back questions dealing with effect on othersand oneself), the order of questions, and respondents' levelsof background political knowledge. Two hundred and eighty-sevensubjects participated in two experimental studies involvingquestions about media coverage of President Clinton's possiblerole in the ‘Whitewater Affair’, his alleged frequentpolicy reversals, the O. J. Simpson murder trial, and childmolestation charges against Michael Jackson. Both experimentsresulted in significant third-person effects that did not dependupon having the same respondents answer both questions; meansfor single-question (no contrast) conditions did not differsignificantly from comparable means in two-question (contrast)conditions. No significant main effects of question order wereobserved. In Experiment 1 a significant interaction betweenpolitical knowledge and question order was found, such thata negative relationship between knowledge and perceived impacton oneself emerged when the ‘self’ question followeda question about perceived effects on others. Experiment 2 replicatedthe interaction for two of three news stimuli, and indicatedthat it was not a product of differences in the personal importanceof issues. Implications of these results for understanding thethird-person effect are discussed. 相似文献
6.
COPING WITH FREEDOM AND UNCERTAINTY: PUBLIC OPINION IN HUNGARY, POLAND, AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA 1989-1992
For the first time in more than four decades, Central and EastEuropeans can openly voice their opinion about everything fromthe price of bread to the performance of the government. Publicopinion has become a dynamic factor in the decision-making processof the new governments of Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakiaand will play an important role in determining what kind ofpost-communist societies develop in these countries. In an effortto explore public sentiment about what kind of society theywant to develop, we analyze results from 14 nationwide, representativepublic opinion polls commissioned by the United States InformationAgency's Office of Research between June 1989 and January 1992in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. After tracing trendsin public opinion over this period, we look at some aspectsof the political culture in these countries. We then reporton our preliminary attempts to understand the determinants ofindividual preferences for either a society that emphasizesindividual freedom and responsibility (‘individual opportunities’society) or one in which the state assumes responsibility forassuring public welfare (‘state guarantees’ society). 相似文献
7.
This paper, part of a larger effort to explicate the natureof American exceptionalism, is based on an assumption recentlyenunciated by Kazuo Ogura: ‘To define the "other" is toknow one's nation’ (Lokker, 1992, p. 2). A person whoknows only one country basically knows no country well. Comparingthe United States or Japan with other nations is the best wayto learn about each. In a previous work, I dealt with Canada,and argued that ‘it is precisely because the two NorthAmerican democracies have so much in common that they permitstudents of each to gain insights into the factors that causevariations’ (Lipset, 1990). Here, I shift to looking atthe two outliers, the two developed nations which are most differentfrom each other. They clearly have distinct organizing principles.And their values, institutions and behaviors fit into sharplydifferent functional wholes. These variations, of course, havebeen written about in myriad comparative scholarly, businessand journalistic works. Given my limited contact with Japan(five visits covering a total of six months over 30 years),I cannot add to them observationally. This article, however,seeks to elaborate and test the validity of the qualitativeanalyses by a comprehensive examination of the comparative dataon opinions, values and behavior, collected by public opinionagencies (Glazer, 1976). As will be evident, there are astonishinglylarge differences between them. 相似文献
8.
This article describes a way for the effects of portrait photosin the mass media to be investigated by combining split ballotexperiments and media content analysis. In a first step, visualsignals with distinct effects on perception are identified onthe basis of theory and of empirical findings from the fieldsof psychology and behavior research. These signals must be gesturesand facial expressions that can easily be made the object ofexperimental variation and allow for easy coding in contentanalyses. Accumulating a great number of such individual experimentswould provide a ‘map’ of the effects of visual signalsand their relative strengths. Incorporating these signals, ina second step, into the codebooks used for media content analysiswould enable a more accurate appraisal than previously possibleof the influence of optical commentary in mass media reporting.The results of the first step of such an endeavor are presented:a split ballot experiment conducted by the Institute fürDemoskopie Allensbach into the effects of the angle at whichone holds one’s head and the gesture whereby one’shand covers the lower half of one’s face. The angle ofthe depicted person’s head has a stronger influence onrespondents than the gesture does. 相似文献
9.
The Australian High Court's decision on the Mabo case, allowingnative title to Aboriginal Australians, became the major politicalissue during the second half of 1993. The Labor party's championingof this issue is suggestive of a fundamental change in Australianpolitics as predicted by ‘new politics’ theoristssuch as Ronald Inglehart. This paper examines the formationof opinions on the Mabo with particular reference to new politics.Several theoretical approaches to the formation of attitudesto political issues are examined. These comprise the new politics,political partisanship, nonattitudes, rational choice, asttitudinalpredispositions, and group socialization approaches. Littlesupport was found for the standard postmaterialist/materialistcleavage, although aspects of the new politics thesis were supportedas were aspects of the other approaches. In the light of thesefindings we outline a model of public opinion incorporatingelements of each approach. 相似文献
10.
THE MAGNIFICATION AND MINIMIZATION OF SOCIAL CLEAVAGES BY THE BROADCAST AND NARROWCAST NEWS MEDIA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper provides an empirical test of the argument that thebroadcast newsmedia help create a ‘national’ publicopinion and mute localized opinion rooted insociodemographiccharacteristics. Using Canadian data, we provide evidence thatmajor social cleavages are reduced as exposure to the broadcastmedia goes up. However, we also provide evidence that exposureto media directed toward segmented aaudiences exacerbates socialcleavages. We conclude by speculating that public opinion maybecome more polarized around sociodemographic cleavages as narrowcastmedia become more dominant and we suggest that this has implicationsfor the study of media effectsusing survey research. 相似文献
11.
'NO OPINION'-FILTERS: A COGNITIVE PERSPECTIVE 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Research on the use of ‘no opinion’-filters suggeststhat respondents are the less likely to offer a substantiveresponse the more strongly the filter question is worded. Aseries of experiments is reported that demonstrates that filterquestions influence respondents' perception of their task: themore strongly the filter question is worded, the more respondentsassume that they will have to answer difficult questions, andthat they may not have the required knowledge. Accordingly,filter questions discourage respondents from offering globalopinions that they may hold. In line with this assumption, allrespondents who reported not having an opinion in response toa filter question, subsequently provided substantive responseson a global opinion question—presumably because the globalquestion asked was less demanding than expected on the basisof the filter. Analyses of these substantive responses indicatedthat respondents who initially reported not having an opiniondiffered from respondents who reported having one. Methodologicalimplications of these findings for the use of filter questionsand for research on the nature of ‘floating’ arediscussed. 相似文献
12.
It has become somewhat of a custom for the editors of this journalto praise, at this place, the thematic and geographical diversityof the research presented in the respective issue. We will notbreak with this custom this time, but, with the twinkling ofan eye, begin by stating that diversity is almost lacking inone respect in this issue: gender. If it were not for one co-authorand the ‘World Opinion’ and ‘Book Reviews’sections, this would be an all-male issue, authorwise. A 相似文献
13.
Durand Jacques; Pages Jean-Pierre; Brenot Jean; Barny Marie-Helene 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1990,2(1):30-52
Some years ago, major French firms and institutions joined forcesto develop the AGORAMETRIE system, which analyzes and followsup public opinion about controversial matters in French society.The system is based on annual comprehensive surveys of representativesamples of the French population. We present here the theoreticalbasis of the system, and its application as a decoding toolto the analysis of specific social problems, by consideringthe following points: the modelling of public opinion througha constructivist approach; questionnaire design and interpretationof structural factors; evolution of public opinion, effectsof date, age and generation; and the ‘grafting’procedure and its application, illustrated by opinion aboutAIDS. 相似文献
14.
This study examines the triangular relationship of the press,the president and public opinion about the drug issue in theUnited States from 1985 to 1990. Agenda-setting theory servesas the theoretical foundation for the ARIMA time-series analysis,which attempts to address who is driving the public opinionformation process about drugs: the press, the president, orthe public. The study employs a unique method in that ‘mostimportant problem’ survey results from nine organizationsare quilted into a time-series of 70 monthly points to measurethe public agenda. The press agenda is based on a computerizedcontent analysis of the frequency of coverage of the drug issue,and the presidential agenda is based on a similar analysis ofthe presidents’ public relations agendas. The three univariatetime-series are identified, estimated, and diagnosed. Then thewhite-noise component of each is used in a cross-correlationanalysis to address the research question. The results indicatethat public opinion mirrors or immediately follows the press,though public opinion also drives the press agenda. Second,the study suggests that the president is following the publicagenda, though the president also has strong immediate influenceon public opinion. And, finally it suggests the president mirrorsand follows the media, in addition to following public opinion.The trend of opinion, when viewed in relation to the historyof events surrounding the issue, suggests that the public opinionformation process, as measured through the lens of public opinionpolls, may be a matter of public perceptions of the realityof the issue and of the pseudo-realities of information campaignsand presidential and press attention, which may have their originsback in the heart of the public concern. 相似文献
15.
Over the last few years, questions in the Australian polls aboutthe rate of immigration and the rate of Asian immigration havegenerated a remarkably wide range of response. While most ofthe polls conducted since 1984 suggest majority opposition tothe rate at which immigrants, including Asian immigrants, havebeen coming to Australia, other polls suggest majority support.Differences between the 1984 poll figures and some of the morerecent polls may reflect changes over time. Other polled differencesalmost certainly reflect differences in the way the questionswere worded. However, the most remarkable if least obvious causeof the difference seems to be the contexts in which the questionswere asked; more precisely, differences in the length and focusof the various questionnaires in which questions on immigrationwere embedded. Public opinion on the rate of immigration isnot only ‘soft’, it is created in the very attemptto measure it. Under these circumstances there is little pointin trying to isolate ‘majority opinion’ or in attemptingto establish which of the polls provides the most accurate reading.Where different readings are a product of differing contextsthey may be best understood in terms of competing conceptionsof what ‘public opinion’ itself is all about. 相似文献
16.
17.
The Dynamics of Opinion Formation in Local Popular Referendums: Why the Dutch Always Say No 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
There is growing research on voting behavior in referendums.However, the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendums,referendums initiated by the electorate to approve or rejectdecisions made by representative bodies, has not yet been studied.This is especially unfortunate as voting decisions in popularreferendums differ from those in other referendums in interestingways. Opinion formation can be a very dynamic process in popularreferendums, making the referendum campaign crucial. This paperstudies the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendumsand relates them to particular characteristics of the campaignsand the issues at hand. Based on the literature, we consideredthe effects of the intensity of the yes and no campaigns, familiaritywith the issue, and partisan cues. Our study uses content analysisdata and data from public opinion surveys dealing with variouspopular referendums held in the Netherlands. The study revealedseveral factors that contributed to the volatility of opinionsin the referendum campaigns: the issue (new and did not fittraditional political schemes), lack of support from societaland community organizations for the position of the local authorities,and low profile campaigns on the part of local authorities.While some of these factors are general and may play a rolein referendums everywhere, some can be considered ‘typicallyDutch’, related to the characteristics of popular referendumsin the Netherlands and the country’s political system. 相似文献
18.
The article aims to explain why attitudes toward gender equalityand gender relations in society vary between individuals andcountries. The hypotheses that are tested stem from two partlyconflicting theories of modernization. Wilensky (2002) advocatesa ‘structural’ explanation for variation in genderattitudes, while Inglehart (1990, 1997) suggests a ‘values’explanation. The author conducts a three-part analysis: an individual,a national, and a multilevel analysis. The structural explanationis better able to account for individual level gender attitudes.Values do, to some extent, serve as the mechanism that producesnational level variation. Inglehart (1990, 1997) is also rightin suggesting that the effect of values on gender attitudesincreases with increasing development. Received for publication August 30, 2005. Revision received December 10, 2005. 相似文献
19.
The paper addresses two propositions: (1) that by publishingnews stories about the electoral strength of parties or candidates,the mass media contribute to shaping the voters' expectationsabout the likely outcome of an upcoming election; (2) that theseexpectations in turn stimulate a bandwagon effect, i.e. theyinfluence vote choice to the advantage of the apparent futurewinner of the election. Analyzing media content and survey datagathered during the campaign for the first all-German nationalelection of December 2, 1990, it can be shown that (1) interestin the media's political reporting as well as interpersonalpolitical communication contributed significantly to convertingvoters to the view of the election outcome that was constantlypresented by the mass media; (2) this belief in turn causedparticularly unsophisticated independent voters to vote forthe apparent winner of the election. Referring to the conceptualframework of ‘low information rationality’, thisbandwagon effect is interpreted as ‘majority-led proxyvoting’. Since public opinion polls play the key rolein its definition, the media portrayal of the competing parties'electoral prospects can be assumed to be fairly accurate, sothat voters relying on such information in casting their voteare not misled. 相似文献
20.
The environmental movement is one of the most successful socialmovements of the twentieth century, and a key reason for itssuccess has been strong public approval of the movement's goalof environmental protection. This paper reports cross-nationaldata on public approval of environmental protection relativeto approval of the goals of other major ‘new social movements’—theanti-nuclear power movement, the nuclear disarmament movement,the women's movement, the human rights movement and the animalrights movement—in Western Europe and the United States.The data come from a 1990 ‘lifestyles and attitudes’survey conducted by Gallup for Reader's Digest, based on nationallyrepresentative samples in the United States and seventeen Europeannations, and show higher public approval for environmental protectionthan for the goals of other new social movements. 相似文献