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1.
This study examines the triangular relationship of the press,the president and public opinion about the drug issue in theUnited States from 1985 to 1990. Agenda-setting theory servesas the theoretical foundation for the ARIMA time-series analysis,which attempts to address who is driving the public opinionformation process about drugs: the press, the president, orthe public. The study employs a unique method in that ‘mostimportant problem’ survey results from nine organizationsare quilted into a time-series of 70 monthly points to measurethe public agenda. The press agenda is based on a computerizedcontent analysis of the frequency of coverage of the drug issue,and the presidential agenda is based on a similar analysis ofthe presidents’ public relations agendas. The three univariatetime-series are identified, estimated, and diagnosed. Then thewhite-noise component of each is used in a cross-correlationanalysis to address the research question. The results indicatethat public opinion mirrors or immediately follows the press,though public opinion also drives the press agenda. Second,the study suggests that the president is following the publicagenda, though the president also has strong immediate influenceon public opinion. And, finally it suggests the president mirrorsand follows the media, in addition to following public opinion.The trend of opinion, when viewed in relation to the historyof events surrounding the issue, suggests that the public opinionformation process, as measured through the lens of public opinionpolls, may be a matter of public perceptions of the realityof the issue and of the pseudo-realities of information campaignsand presidential and press attention, which may have their originsback in the heart of the public concern. 相似文献
2.
The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices. 相似文献
3.
This paper explores the role of perceptions of the opinionsof others as they relate to the formation of public opinion.Two interrelated theories involving such perceptions, the thirdperson effect and the spiral of silence, are tested in the contextof public opinion regarding divestment of financial interestsin South Africa. As hypothesized by the third person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports on others were found to be consistentlygreater than perceptions of influence on self. Findings werestrongly supportive of this component of the ‘third personeffect’ hypothesis. Perceptions of the opinions of otherswere also explored in relation to respondents' willingness toexpress their opinions publicly. As suggested by the spiralof silence theory, respondents were found to be more willingto express their opinions publicly when they perceived a trendin support of their viewpoint, or when there was a greater perceivedlikelihood of achieving success for their issue position. The size of the effect produced from joining these two processesis moderated by the role of issue salience. People perceivingdivestment as a highly important issue are more likely to ascribegreater media influence to others than to themselves, but theirwillingness to express their opinions publicly is least likelyto be influenced by perceptions of the climate of opinion. 相似文献
4.
Ball-Rokeach S. J.; Power Gerard J.; Guthrie K. Kendall; Waring H. Ross 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1990,2(3):249-273
This paper is in the tradition of social analysis aimed at creatingframeworks to join mass media and public opinion processes (e.g.Clarke and Evans, 1983; Gamson, 1975; Gitlin, 1980; Hall, 1977;Iyengar and Kinder, 1987; Lang and Lang, 1968, 1983; Lippman,1922; Mollotch and Lester, 1974; Noelle-Neuman, 1974; Paletzand Entman, 1981; Shaw and McCombs, 1977; Turner and Paz, 1986).After a brief review of media system dependency (MSD) theory,we illustrate how it may apply to public opinion processes thatentail contested issue ‘value-frames’ (Ball-Rokeachand Rokeach, 1987). In such cases, the media system is directlyimplicated in the negotiation of legitimacy of opposing positionson an issue. Our illustrative case is the abortion issue asit has been played out in the United States over recent decades(Luker, 1984). We focus upon the respective capacities of pro-and anti-abortion movements to control the value-frame of mediacoverage of the issue (Guthrie, 1989). A value-frame may beconceived as ‘... the main substantive theme of a moralityplay’ (Ball-Rokeach and Tallman, 1979) wherein the distinctionbetween ‘good’ and ‘bad’ hangs in thebalance; in this case, between positions on abortion. We suggestthat change in the value-frame of media coverage and publicdiscourse may be understood, at least in part, as an outcomeof change in contestants' MSD relations. 相似文献
5.
Hans-Bernd Brosius; Mathias Hans Kepplinger 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1995,7(3):211-231
The capacity of the mass media to cover issues as well as thecapacity of recipients to be concerned about issues is limited.The coverage on and the concern about new issues will consequentlyremove old issues from the agenda of both the mass media andthe general public. The present study investigates two modelsof this process of issue competition. The equal-displacementmodel assumes that a rise of one issue in the media by a givennumber of stories is matched by an equal fall in all other issuessumming up to a similar number of issues. The restructuringmodel assumes that unexpected, surprising or otherwise newsworthyevents create killer issues that move several other issues completelyoff the agenda and leave others untouched. A content analysisof all news shows of the two major TV stations in Germany and53 weekly surveys regarding 16 different issues covering thewhole year 1986 shows that—within the media agenda—therewere no killer issues affecting the coverage of the TV stations.In the public agenda, however, some killer issues could be identified.Coverage of these issues increased public concern about themand decreased concerns about other issues. Consequences of theseresults for agenda-setting theory and for politics are discussed. 相似文献
6.
The Dynamics of Opinion Formation in Local Popular Referendums: Why the Dutch Always Say No 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
There is growing research on voting behavior in referendums.However, the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendums,referendums initiated by the electorate to approve or rejectdecisions made by representative bodies, has not yet been studied.This is especially unfortunate as voting decisions in popularreferendums differ from those in other referendums in interestingways. Opinion formation can be a very dynamic process in popularreferendums, making the referendum campaign crucial. This paperstudies the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendumsand relates them to particular characteristics of the campaignsand the issues at hand. Based on the literature, we consideredthe effects of the intensity of the yes and no campaigns, familiaritywith the issue, and partisan cues. Our study uses content analysisdata and data from public opinion surveys dealing with variouspopular referendums held in the Netherlands. The study revealedseveral factors that contributed to the volatility of opinionsin the referendum campaigns: the issue (new and did not fittraditional political schemes), lack of support from societaland community organizations for the position of the local authorities,and low profile campaigns on the part of local authorities.While some of these factors are general and may play a rolein referendums everywhere, some can be considered ‘typicallyDutch’, related to the characteristics of popular referendumsin the Netherlands and the country’s political system. 相似文献
7.
THE MAGNIFICATION AND MINIMIZATION OF SOCIAL CLEAVAGES BY THE BROADCAST AND NARROWCAST NEWS MEDIA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper provides an empirical test of the argument that thebroadcast newsmedia help create a ‘national’ publicopinion and mute localized opinion rooted insociodemographiccharacteristics. Using Canadian data, we provide evidence thatmajor social cleavages are reduced as exposure to the broadcastmedia goes up. However, we also provide evidence that exposureto media directed toward segmented aaudiences exacerbates socialcleavages. We conclude by speculating that public opinion maybecome more polarized around sociodemographic cleavages as narrowcastmedia become more dominant and we suggest that this has implicationsfor the study of media effectsusing survey research. 相似文献
8.
This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys. 相似文献
9.
Claudia Kozman 《Journalism Practice》2017,11(6):777-797
This study explored frames in the coverage of the steroids issue in baseball through a content analysis of traditional and new media. Using issue-specific and generic frames, it proposed a hybrid measurement tool that combines both approaches. Findings of the principal component analysis indicate the media framed the steroids issue primarily in terms of conflict and policy. Significant differences emerged between traditional and new media, on the one hand, and between the news and sports media, on the other. Besides these frames, the media also presented the steroids story as a public opinion and morality issue, using organizational officials, the public, and the media to convey these frames. 相似文献
10.
心理距离视角下网络舆情传播意愿影响因素研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
[目的/意义]网络舆情传播意愿的形成是网民的一种心理活动，与心理距离密不可分。了解影响网络舆情传播意愿的主要因素，有助于监督管控部门更加卓有成效地对网络舆情进行预警和治理。[方法/过程]通过对心理距离理论的深层次剖析，对其构成进行阐述，并从时间距离、空间距离、社会距离、概率4个维度出发，做出系列理论假设，利用调查问卷法和最优尺度回归分析法，识别出主要影响因素及其重要程度。[结果/结论]最终归纳出7个影响网民改变其自身传播意愿的主要因素，即报道时间、家乡相关、向往地相关、生活相关、亲戚朋友发布、媒体官方发布、企业官方发布，从这7个影响因素出发监控舆情，可以帮助舆情管控部门更有针对性地掌控舆情的传播方向。 相似文献
11.
An agenda-building model was examined for the question of Africaand terrorism. A path analysis compared real-world events (deathsand attacks attributed to terrorism), presidential emphasis,media coverage, and foreign aid for 20 African nations. Resultsshow a clear agenda-building trend—when nations were emphasizedwith a terrorism frame. Presidential emphasis of nations’involvement in terrorism influenced media coverage and the policyagenda. The findings also suggest that deaths attributed toterrorism influenced the news and policy agendas. Media coverageof nations with a terrorism frame influenced the policy agenda.Only one significant path coefficient was found in the analysisof agenda setting without terrorism framing: The more PresidentBush mentioned a nation in his public statements, the more TheNew York Times covered the country. Received for publication September 29, 2006. Accepted for publication March 27, 2007. 相似文献
12.
[目的/意义]社交媒体环境下意见领袖与受众社群间形成了自运转、自循环的范围舆情系统，有效甄别意见领袖并评价其影响力对加强网络舆情管控具有实践意义。[方法/过程]结合OCA扩展理论、群际关系理论、舆情场势理论以及SIC理论，通过系统动力学分析意见领袖作用、前因变量及其动因机制，构建意见领袖影响力评价体系的一般性框架，提出一种变权重灰色关联度的意见领袖甄别算法，并以舆情话题"11·3留日女生遇害案"进行实证研究。[结果/结论]"蝴蝶图示"架构了意见领袖作用与前因变量的因果关系及反馈回路，揭示了舆情系统内社群生态与意见领袖作用协同演化的内在机理；本文提出的理论模型具有多维度测度、权重集科学、算法性能优越等特点，适用于社交网络中意见领袖形成的动态过程。 相似文献
13.
[目的/意义]针对当前我国多媒体网络舆情响应问题，梳理并提出以危机风险分型为基础的政府组织响应路径整合匹配、响应工作流程模型构建机理，以期为管理决策者提升资源整合能力、网络舆情危机精准响应效力提供参考。[方法/过程]对大数据环境下网络舆情危机动力要素的作用进行分析，提取出网络舆情危机风险分型的基础系数，并以多元结构网络舆情信息的多媒体传播路径为视角提取网络舆情危机风险分型叠加系数，再逐一提取各风险分型下网络舆情危机响应的工作要点。[结果/结论]根据主体结构要素、媒体效力要素、客体属性要素危机作用形态的排序组合，在其关系节点上建立多媒体网络舆情危机等级基数。根据本体成分分化后对舆情危机的不同影响效果，建立多媒体网络舆情危机加成系数。建立多媒体网络舆情危机风险分型模型，将舆情危机风险解构为等级系数和加成系数。从而更为准确地描述舆情危机的表征，有利于判断舆情危机的未来发展态势，提高与既往舆情危机案例匹配的速度与精准度。 相似文献
14.
Xiujun Deng 《亚洲交流杂志》2018,28(5):526-540
After the Spring Festival of 2015, an environmental documentary called Under the Dome in which Chai Jing acted as a narrator has caused the public opinion to boom in social media in China. Why could a documentary released by internet attract so much attention and spark such a heated discussion? What are the factors that have influence on the information dissemination of social media environmental mobilization? This paper employed case study and semi-structure interviews to reveal these questions. It turned out that individual trust, group norms and information networks of the social capital played an important role in the social media environmental mobilization. The reason why Under the Dome became a hot issue was that it made full use of the social media users’ trust on the mobilizer, aroused the mobilized’s emotions and combined the network channels of social relationships. 相似文献
15.
5G商用翩然将至,其高速率、高带宽和低延时的特性为新闻传播领域的变革提供强大动力。新的时代机遇使舆情监测和舆论引导也出现了新的现象,产生了新的问题。具体来说:由于技术保障提升,舆情事件进一步朝着全时段、即时性发展,这将进一步促动情绪传播的问题凸显。而V R、A R以及高清视频在进一步巩固人们的媒介化生存同时,也为舆情表达和监测提供了新的手段。技术在改造时空感受的同时,也使舆情发酵呈现出累计和对冲、衍生等多样式的动态变化。面临这些新的机遇和挑战,梳理新的媒介素养观念,强化对公众情绪控制和情绪合理表达的涵养教育;平衡算法与价值、个人需求与公共利益;坚持党管媒体都是5 G时代加强舆论引导和社会管理的重要抓手。 相似文献
16.
[目的/意义]情感维度是网络舆情信息预警级别的评定信号,其影响要素关联模型的构建能够较为清晰地描述各要素间及其与大数据网络舆情环境之间的错综复杂关系,从而为深入探讨大数据网络舆情信息的情感发展规律提供参考。[方法/过程]根据情感维度理论,从情感的种类、情感的转换、情感的唤起3个维度建构大数据网络环境下舆情信息情感维度要素关联模型。[结果/结论]实证分析结果表明:大数据舆情信息情感维度模型中舆情信息的情感级别与情感反应、情感焦点维度之间存在显著相关;情感指向与其他维度之间存在弱相关;情感维度模型中没有完全无关的要素。 相似文献
17.
Jaspers Eva; Lubbers Marcel; de Graaf Nan Dirk 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》2007,19(4):451-473
In this article, we investigate changes in public opinion inthe Netherlands toward two controversial issues: homosexualsand euthanasia. We find that a rapid decrease in oppositionto both issues in the seventies and early eighties was followedby a period of a stable minority opposition. We identify relevantperiod and cohort indicators to test which characteristics areassociated with the changes in the attitudes. We collected periodand cohort characteristics that are applicable to both of theattitudes, but specific attitude-related circumstantial conditionsas well. For both attitudes, it turns out that the changingcomposition of Dutch society with regard to religiousness accountsfor the largest changes in public opinion. Furthermore, we findthat the influence of religion on both the attitude towardseuthanasia and the attitude towards homosexuals became strongerover time, whereas the influence of educational attainment weakenedover time. Received for publication April 13, 2006. Accepted for publication April 23, 2007. 相似文献
18.
利用信息提取工具包GooSeeker中的抓取规则编辑器MetaStudio和页面信息抓取工具DataScraper等分工合作,挖掘突发事件的网媒报道数据,获得突发事件网络舆情的散点图。利用基于最小二乘法的多项式拟合法,获取各种舆情数据的拟合函数,并以近年来的突发事件作为相关案例进行实证分析。研究表明,根据各网络舆情的函数特征,其演化模式可分为突发型、连续型和复合型等,该方法能够有效地揭示突发事件网络舆情的演化过程和演化规律,为突发事件网络舆情的实时应对提供理论基础。 相似文献
19.
［目的/意义］ 梳理网络舆情的研究进展,有助于厘清网络舆情研究的知识基础、传导规律、预警机制和治理策略等之间的内在联系和主题演化路径。［方法/过程］ 首先分析网络舆情的理论知识基础,然后结合现有研究,按照内容递进的规律将网络舆情研究分为影响因素、传导路径、预警机制以及引导治理策略四个主题,采用内容分析法和社会网络分析法对网络舆情进行主题关联关系分析和演化路径探索。［结果/结论］ 结果表明,生命周期理论、认知定势理论、沉默的螺旋、群体极化理论、蝴蝶效应理论和治理理论常作为网络舆情研究的理论知识基础,网络媒介环境、社会结构压力、网民心理、触发性事件、有效动员和社会控制力量六个因素被视为网络舆情演化的重要影响要素,且网络舆情、舆情事件、社交媒体、利益相关者、大数据和信息传播等六个主题与其他研究内容关系较为密切,在主题演化路径中发挥着重要桥接作用。 相似文献
20.
从学术影响力、社会影响力、国际影响力等方面分析“渝刊”发展现状,总结“渝刊”出版创新与服务区域发展举措:通过政策支持与项目扶持,引导机制创新,增强文化发展活力;通过集约化布局与精品化办刊,发展模式创新,提升科技综合实力;通过服务功能拓展与交流平台构建,服务方式创新,拓宽社会发展空间;通过刊网互动与平台打造,传播手段创新,加快媒体融合步伐.提出进一步提升“渝刊”舆论引导力、信息传播力、品牌影响力的对策建议. 相似文献