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1.
精确新闻采用科学方法,可以使我们避免记者的偏见,这是科学方法的“利”;但是,科学方法使用不当,科学方法的“利”就变成“弊”了,也就会产生精确新闻不精确的现象,具体表现为:一、假意见。虽然民意测验强调以科学客观的方法,探求民意,但是民意调查的结果和其它的所有研究一样,也可能由于种种原因无法正确的反映社会真实,因而产生了假意见,①误导读者。在民意调查的发源地美国,也有人批判民意调查误导了选民的选举行为。二、可信度低。宾夕法尼亚大学新闻系副教授雷皮伊通过调查发现,越是小报纸,越多的调查由报社人员自己去做,因此认为报社… 相似文献
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民意调查以“面”的形式或梳理现状,或摸清态度,或预测结果,这种对大众意见的收集途径,不同于既往多以个体视角表达的传统报道,所以近年来颇受传统媒体关注,跟进者甚众,如中国青年报的《青年调查》、新民晚报的《新民意》、长江日报的《民调新闻》,重庆晨报为做好民意调查,还招募了1000名社区观察员. 相似文献
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在公民社会逐渐形成的时代,报纸不仅是新闻纸、宣传纸,也承担了民意表达的重要任务.报纸通过民意调查,可以比较直接地反映民意,也使决策部门能够比较准确地把握舆论,从而使其在现实生活中有更多发言权. 相似文献
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全球民意调查是提升国际传播效能、促进各国民心相通、推动人类文明发展的重要渠道,有助于把握国际舆论规律和趋势,掌握国际舆情知情权、引导国际舆论主动权,增强国际传播的细分化与精准性。因而,要在战略层面重视民意价值,在制度层面完善调研体系,在策略层面对接民意动态,为全面提升国际传播效能提供有力支撑。 相似文献
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<青年调查>是<中国青年报>特色栏目之一,该版以刊登各类民意调查报道为主,目前主要是通过自主进行网络问卷调查的方式收集民众对于重大时政、民生、社会现象的看法--即统计学意义上的网络民意,辅之以电话、面访、随报刊登问卷等方式进行民意调查. 相似文献
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网络民意调查的方法探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
当前中国媒体所进行的民意调查越来越多,但其中存在的问题也越来越突出,主要表现为片面追求样本量、问卷过于简单化、提问倾向性明显、报道中过分夸大等.本文以网络媒体民意调查的方法为研究内容,对当前媒体广泛使用的民意调查方法进行了归类总结,逐一分析其中存在的误区,并针对性地提出了改进措施以及对未来的发展趋势.一、民意调查历史与方法概述民意调查就是用科学的方法、客观的态度,以人们的观念、习惯、行为和态度为调查研究的主要内容,有效地收集和分析有关的信息,从而为管理决策部门制定有关的战略和策略提供基础性的数据和资料.①从这个概念我们可以看出,在民意调查中,科学的方法和客观的态度是首要的前提条件,违背这两个条件,其结果就必然是有偏差的. 相似文献
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当今媒体的高度发达,为各级政府提供了了解社情民意、聚集民智的重要载体和平台.通过媒体民意调查来吸取、引导民意,应当成为各级政府决策中必不可少的重要环节,也是从管理型政府向服务型政府转变的必由之路.本文立足中外政府的媒体民意调查实践分析,研究其学理意义和操作运用方法,以期为各级政府推动决策科学化、民主化提供借鉴. 相似文献
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精确新闻采用民意调查、内容分析及实地实验等社会科学研究方法来报道新闻,使新闻内容能更准确地反映与解释各种社会现象。在很大程度上,它排除了个别的、偶然性的事件,排除了记者主观成见,反映普遍的民意,使新闻更加科学、客观,更具有普遍性、说服力,受到读者的信任与欢迎。北京、上海、广州等地的报纸有了许多的精确新闻的报道,如 相似文献
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Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. 相似文献
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Although many studies have investigated citizens' attitudes toward polls and the political consequences, there have been no studies examining the effects of social network site (SNS) users' opinion environments on their poll skepticism. Based on prior studies on poll skepticism, we examine the relationship between perceived SNS opinion environments, poll skepticism, perceived concerns over the negative influence of the polls, and voting intention in an upcoming election. Using the survey data of the 2012 South Korean General Election, this study found that if the published polls are against respondents' political position, their homophilous SNS opinion environments promote poll skepticism, and augmented poll skepticism leads to concerns over the negative influence of the polls on other voters, which in turn increases voting intention. 相似文献
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The news media’s use of polls is by no means the special preserve of democracies. Using the case of Chinese government’s official medium (i.e. the People’s Daily), this study set out to assess how poll results are communicated to the public in China by examining the presentation of methodological information in its poll stories, and how its web counterpart, the People’s Daily Online website, differs in its coverage of polls from a technical point of view. It then examined the outlets’ interpretations of poll results and the media logic the coverage implies in comparison with the political logic that shapes poll reporting in China. Further critical discourse analysis reveals the use of authoritarian populist rhetoric as a discursive strategy in both outlets’ representation of public opinion. Compared with the print outlet, the online outlet showed a more marked inclination to describe a certain class as ‘the people’ in anti-elite rhetoric. 相似文献
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Jennifer Hoewe 《Communication Research Reports》2016,33(3):247-252
This study examined political journalists’ definitions of public opinion and how these definitions influence the structure of political news stories. After considering prior conceptualizations of public opinion, a scale of two distinct definitions of public opinion was created, consisting of the optimist’s and the pessimist’s definitions. Using a survey of political journalists in the United States, these public opinion definitions were significant predictors of the use of particular sources in political news stories. Importantly, the two definitions had opposite influences on the use of opinion polls, shedding light on the discrepancy in use and perception of poll results in political news. 相似文献
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Francis L. F. Lee 《亚洲交流杂志》2013,23(2):132-151
Opinion polling has become a common feature in news and public discourse in Hong Kong. This study examines how local newspapers cover popularity polls about the government and its leaders. It is hypothesized that newspapers adhering to different journalistic paradigms would cover such popularity polls differently in terms of the inclusion of methodological information, use of news sources, emphasis on negative versus positive results, treatment of polls conducted by different entities, and use of visual means of representations. A content analysis was conducted on four newspapers which represent the professionalism, populism, and propaganda paradigms, respectively. The results show that there are both similarities and differences in the poll coverage of the newspapers, with the differences mostly corresponding to the differences in journalistic paradigms. The results also point to a number of phenomena about news media in Hong Kong and poll reporting in general. 相似文献
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Over the last few years, questions in the Australian polls aboutthe rate of immigration and the rate of Asian immigration havegenerated a remarkably wide range of response. While most ofthe polls conducted since 1984 suggest majority opposition tothe rate at which immigrants, including Asian immigrants, havebeen coming to Australia, other polls suggest majority support.Differences between the 1984 poll figures and some of the morerecent polls may reflect changes over time. Other polled differencesalmost certainly reflect differences in the way the questionswere worded. However, the most remarkable if least obvious causeof the difference seems to be the contexts in which the questionswere asked; more precisely, differences in the length and focusof the various questionnaires in which questions on immigrationwere embedded. Public opinion on the rate of immigration isnot only ‘soft’, it is created in the very attemptto measure it. Under these circumstances there is little pointin trying to isolate ‘majority opinion’ or in attemptingto establish which of the polls provides the most accurate reading.Where different readings are a product of differing contextsthey may be best understood in terms of competing conceptionsof what ‘public opinion’ itself is all about. 相似文献
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Boonlert Supadhiloke 《亚洲交流杂志》2015,25(2):135-161
In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias. 相似文献
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This article examines the performance of the pre-election pollsin Portugal since 1991 and attempts to determine some of thecommon causes of poll inaccuracy in both National Assembly andEuropean Parliament elections. The analysis of poll resultsin this period reveals marked improvements in poll accuracysince 1991, which have brought it to levels that, today, arecomparable to those found in nations where the practice of bothsurvey research and opinion polling is longer and more established.No evidence of a systematic bias against any of the major partiesis found, and sources of error are congruent with those foundelsewhere. However, large errors remain the norm in polls pertainingto European Parliament elections, suggesting a shared inabilityof Portuguese polling organizations in dealing appropriatelywith the problems caused by low turnout and ‘landslide’elections. 相似文献
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The Internet continues to grow as an information and entertainment medium. Internet growth has implications for the news industry. Twenty-four hour news networks such as CNN and MSNBC regularly encourage viewers of their television programs to visit their Web sites. While visiting news Web sites, visitors are invited to participate in opinion polls. Unfortunately, these online opinion polls are not scientific and have little real news value. In spite of these limitations, news Web sites' Internet polls are often treated as serious topics in broadcast news discussions. This article examines media organizations' Internet online polls and critiques them as instances of symbolic representation and pseudo-events that have arisen largely out of the integration of print, broadcast, and Internet media. 相似文献
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This study examined two levels of media agenda effects on aggregatepublic opinion from different news sources. The effects wereinvestigated immediately and cumulatively. Content analysisdata from the 2000 U.S. presidential election coverage by fournational news organizations were related to the Gallup pre-electionpoll standings of each candidate. Regression analyses foundthat both the salience of a candidate and the salience of theattributes of a candidate cumulatively, but not immediately,influenced his standing in the polls. An analysis of news sourcessupported the finding that the two levels of agenda-settingeffects seemed mostly cumulative rather than immediate. Newsfrom different sources, however, tended to have effects of differentdegrees and sometimes different directions on candidate pollstandings. Cumulative effects of candidate salience on aggregateopinion change were found for non-partisan and neutral newssources—reporters, poll reporting and public documents—whereasthe effects of candidate attribute salience mostly came frompartisan sources—the candidate himself and members ofthe competing political party. Possible political implicationsof these findings are discussed. 相似文献