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1.
The effects of new communication technologies on election campaigns, and the effectiveness of media-centered campaign strategies more broadly, remain ongoing subjects for debate in political science. This study provides some of the first empirical evidence about the potential impact of social media on the 2012 U.S. presidential elections, by testing the association between “candidate salience” and the candidates' level of engagement in online social media sphere. We define “candidate salience” as the extent to which candidates are discussed online by the public in an election campaign, and have selected the number of mentions presidential candidates receive on the social media site, Twitter, as means of quantifying their salience. This strategy allows us to examine whether social media, which is widely recognized as disruptive in the broader economic and social domains, has the potential to change the traditional dynamics of U.S. election campaigns. We find that while social media does substantially expand the possible modes and methods of election campaigning, high levels of social media activity on the part of presidential candidates have, as of yet, resulted in minimal effects on the amount of public attention they receive online. 相似文献
2.
The paper addresses two propositions: (1) that by publishingnews stories about the electoral strength of parties or candidates,the mass media contribute to shaping the voters' expectationsabout the likely outcome of an upcoming election; (2) that theseexpectations in turn stimulate a bandwagon effect, i.e. theyinfluence vote choice to the advantage of the apparent futurewinner of the election. Analyzing media content and survey datagathered during the campaign for the first all-German nationalelection of December 2, 1990, it can be shown that (1) interestin the media's political reporting as well as interpersonalpolitical communication contributed significantly to convertingvoters to the view of the election outcome that was constantlypresented by the mass media; (2) this belief in turn causedparticularly unsophisticated independent voters to vote forthe apparent winner of the election. Referring to the conceptualframework of ‘low information rationality’, thisbandwagon effect is interpreted as ‘majority-led proxyvoting’. Since public opinion polls play the key rolein its definition, the media portrayal of the competing parties'electoral prospects can be assumed to be fairly accurate, sothat voters relying on such information in casting their voteare not misled. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTThis study introduces and evaluates the robustness of different volumetric, sentiment, and social network approaches to predict the elections in three Asian countries – Malaysia, India, and Pakistan from Twitter posts. We find that predictive power of social media performs well for India and Pakistan but is not effective for Malaysia. Overall, we find that it is useful to consider the recency of Twitter posts while using it to predict a real outcome, such as an election result. Sentiment information mined using machine learning models was the most accurate predictor of election outcomes. Social network information is stable despite sudden surges in political discussions, for e.g. around elections-related news events. Methods combining sentiment and volume information, or sentiment and social network information, are effective at predicting smaller vote shares, for e.g. vote shares in the case of independent candidates and regional parties. We conclude with a detailed discussion on the caveats of social media analysis for predicting real-world outcomes and recommendations for future work. 相似文献
4.
This study investigates the impact of dual-screening on audiences’ perceptions of presidential candidates during the 2016 electoral campaign. The results suggest that dual-screening can exert a significant moderation role, weakening the direct effects of the televised debates on candidate perceptions. The results also imply that the role of dual-screening might be dependent on the audience’s need-to-evaluate characteristic. These findings address the pressing societal questions on ways that digital disruption is impacting the role of traditional media in political campaigns and our theoretical understanding of this process. 相似文献
5.
The role of the press as a political watchdog is crucial to the functioning of democracy. Especially in the run-up to elections, voters depend on the media's presentation of parties and candidates to make informed, responsible choices at the ballot box. But who, then, influences the news media? Empirical evidence in the United States and Europe suggests that political party campaigns and election coverage in the news media are interconnected and influence each other. This study tests whether such agenda-setting effects between party campaigns and the media also take place in the general elections in the world's largest democracy, India. India's western-type political system has a distinct media system characterized by high competition, diversification, non-consolidation and formal and informal ties between the media, commercial interests and political actors. Content analysis and Granger's causality test of newspaper coverage (N?=?716) and party campaign messages (N?=?458) found that agenda-setting effects do occur in India, but are largely bi-directional. We also found an overwhelming focus of both newspapers’ election coverage and of all major party campaigns on one single candidate, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s Narendra Modi. This, we argue, is a result of the broader trends that have shaped Indian politics in recent years. The significant correlations and non-significant causal effects between party campaign and media coverage also indicate a trade-off situation between political power negotiation and political balance in the press. 相似文献
6.
During election campaigns, candidates, parties, and media share their relevance on Twitter with a group of especially active users, aligned with a particular party. This paper introduces the profile of “party evangelists,” and explores the activity and effects these users had on the general political conversation during the 2015 Spanish general election. On that occasion, the electoral expectations were uncertain for the two major parties (PP and PSOE) because of the rise of two emerging parties that were disrupting the political status quo (Podemos and Ciudadanos). This was an ideal situation to assess the differences between the evangelists of established and emerging parties. The paper evaluates two aspects of the political conversation based on a corpus of 8.9 million tweets: the retweeting effectiveness, and the sentiment analysis of the overall conversation. We found that one of the emerging party’s evangelists dominated message dissemination to a much greater extent. 相似文献
7.
《Government Information Quarterly》2021,38(4):101598
The literature dealing with undecided voters – a growing group of citizens in many democracies that can determine who wins in election campaigns – suggests two very different profiles. The first approach describes undecided voters as being generally uninformed about politics, while the second sees undecideds as sophisticated citizens who follow a campaign closely before making their final voting decision. The current study tries to make sense of this contrast, while examining differences between sophisticated and less sophisticated undecideds (their level of sophistication was based on their political interest and knowledge). Using two panel surveys, conducted before and after the April 2019 elections in Israel (N = 1427; N = 912), we examine a number of hypotheses about differences in terms of the undecided citizens' demographic backgrounds, how they search for political information during the election campaign, how they come to make their final decisions, and whether they ended up voting. The findings indicate that the typical sophisticated undecided voter is a citizen from a more privileged social background, exhibits greater trust in traditional media, consumes more news to follow the campaign (from various traditional news outlets and social media), is more likely to carry out online discussions about the elections, is more likely to base his or her decision on policy issues, is more likely to debate between parties within the same ideological camp (internal floater), and more likely to vote than less sophisticated undecided voters. Our typology, which makes a distinction between sophisticated and less sophisticated undecided voters, as well as these findings (and the comparison to the committed voters), can help political scientists and practitioners widen their understanding regarding this important group of voters in todays' complex political reality. 相似文献
8.
The televised debates in the 2016 presidential election took place between two controversial candidates, Hillary Clinton and her opponent, Donald Trump, who faced a deeply divided electorate of highly opinioned voters that had already decided on their supported candidates. How did viewing the debates influence them? Would the debates reinforce their existing opinion, or provide them with useful information about the candidates? Drawing on Davison’s third-person effect hypothesis, this study aims to shed light on the question of how viewing the debates influences voters relative to others in the era of social media. The study focuses on the need for orientation as a predictor of debate exposure and the behavioral consequences of debate exposure for electoral engagement on social media. Findings show that partisans are not impacted by viewing the debates, but respondents perceived Independents to be most vulnerable. Further, need for orientation moderated the relationship between debate exposure and perceived effects of the debates on self, which prompted respondents to mobilize support for the candidate of their choice and to vote for their supported candidates. 相似文献
9.
Jungsub Shin 《亚洲交流杂志》2017,27(3):233-249
Which issues do political parties emphasize in campaigns? Selecting the issues to emphasize in campaigns is treated with the same importance as policy positioning. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to understanding parties’ strategies of issue competition in presidential elections under multiparty systems. By analyzing statements of presidential candidates in the 2002, 2007, and 2012 Korean presidential debates, we find that presidential candidates use their issue emphasis strategies differently in presidential elections according to party size and ideological relationships with other parties. Specifically, a small party’s candidates have been more likely than mainstream parties’ candidates to pursue their issue ownership advantage. In addition, a mainstream party’s candidates have emphasized the issues of a small party more than those of his own party when the two parties have had a similar ideological foundation, whereas, when there were no such ideological similarities, a mainstream party’s candidate has only focused on issues of the mainstream party. Our results imply that the political communication used by political parties and candidates is conditioned not only by political contexts such as electoral systems or party systems but also by the size and ideology of parties. 相似文献
10.
Annis Lee Adams 《Public Services Quarterly》2020,16(2):95-100
Abstract2020 is an election year in the United States. As we know from both past elections and the current election season, mudslinging, hyperbole, misinformation campaigns, and fake news proliferate the media landscape. Finding and recognizing reliable, accurate, nonpartisan election information can be challenging. Fortunately, several websites offer reliable, accurate, nonpartisan, and balanced information on the election and about voting. Some sources include information on how to register to vote, who can register to vote, and explain voting rights. Other sources provide links to or compile information on candidate voting records, where candidates get their funding, where they stand on issues, and fact check their statements. And, still others allow voters to get personalized information about what will be on their specific ballots, such as all the candidates running for local, state, and national offices, as well as bond measures, propositions, and other ballot initiatives. The reviews included in this issue’s column comprise a sampling of reliable election websites spanning the various election topics mentioned above. Librarians can feel confident recommending these sites to their patrons looking for accurate, balanced, reliable election and voting information. 相似文献
11.
Why People Dual Screen Political Debates and Why It Matters for Democratic Engagement 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dual screening during televised election debates is a new domain in which political elites and journalists seek to influence audience attitudes and behavior. But to what extent do non-elite dual screeners seek to influence others, particularly their social media followers, social media users in general, and even politicians and journalists? And how does this behavior affect short- and longer-term engagement with election campaigns? Using unique, event-based, panel survey data from the main 2015 UK general election debate (Wave 1 = 2,351; Wave 2 = 1,168) we reveal the conditions under which people experience agency, empowerment, and engagement now that social media have reconfigured broadcast political television. 相似文献
12.
《Government Information Quarterly》2022,39(4):101745
Contemporary social media (SM) has strongly impacted democratic practices. The success of presidential campaigns is frequently attributed to being highly correlated with the candidates' social media performance, but there is no well-established method to measure this performance. Thus, this study aims to improve the understanding of a politician's performance on SM and its correlation with electoral results. Applying a new, recently-defined set of metrics, based on Zajonc's exposition theory and considering the interactions of users on politicians' profiles in multiple SM platforms, this research identifies statistical correlations between SM performance and the votes received in multiple elections. As case studies, this paper focuses on the most recent presidential elections in the four most populous countries in Latin America: Argentina (2019), Brazil (2018), Colombia (2018), and Mexico (2018). Data from more than 65,000 posts were collected from the SM profiles of the main candidates on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, starting from 300 days before the election days, and correlations with electoral results were calculated. The results demonstrated strong correlations between the defined metrics and the votes received, particularly the engagement per post, although there were differences among countries. On the other hand, we observed that there is zero or negative correlation between the number of posts and the electoral results. 相似文献
13.
Kenneth L. Hacker Max Scott Lori Howl Robert Steiner 《Communication Research Reports》2013,30(2):138-146
This article presents a content analysis of three computer‐mediated communication (CMC) networks used for political discussion during the 1992 Presidential election campaign. Data indicate that the main use of computer networks in the campaign was to assert personal opinions about the candidates, issues, and the election. Other uses were talking about one's own life and experiences, telling others what they should be doing, and posting information for others to read. Significant differences were found between the three campaigns for uses of these computer networks. The Clinton network was used more than the other two for posting information. The Perot network was used more than the others for asserting opinions. This study indicates that voters have specific functions for the use of computer networks as new channels of political communication. Future research should examine what groups of voters use these networks the most and how such use affects candidate image formation. Suggestions are offered for the study of campaign computer lists in the upcoming presidential election of 1996. 相似文献
14.
Josef Seethaler 《Journalism Practice》2014,8(3):258-278
As election campaigns changed substantially in Western countries, it is generally hypothesized that this change in campaign communication is rooted in a revolution in communications, with the media rejecting its former role as mere transmitters and becoming a major actor in the campaigning process. Regarding the analysis of the “mediatization of politics”, Strömbäck presented a four phases model which offers a way to explore such a process in an explicit and systematic fashion. The resulting struggle between political parties and the media over who shall control the agendas of campaigns forces politicians to adapt to and, finally, to adopt media logic. By operationalizing these four phases in order to allow for empirical research, we investigated the roles of the news media and the political parties in Austrian campaign communication in the last four decades. Taking the agenda-setting power as an indicator for changes in this relationship, our study is based on the concepts of agenda-building and policy agenda-setting as extensions of the agenda-setting model. To establish party and media agendas, a content analysis was conducted on news releases of all Austrian parliamentary parties, the main evening newscasts of all Austrian broadcasters, as well as the political coverage of two quality papers and two major tabloids during the “hot phase” of the campaign. For examining the “struggle over agendas”, a time-series cross-section design (including data on 20 different policy dimensions) was applied. First results are based on the analysis of five election campaigns in 1970, 1983, 1990, 1999, and 2008. 相似文献
15.
Political candidates increasingly use social media to tell their stories, share their thoughts and feelings and chronicle an unfolding election. We argue that the concept of identification—the process through which an audience member cognitively assumes the perspective of a media personality—can help illuminate how online campaigns can increase citizen support. This study employed a two-wave survey with a U.S. national sample conducted prior to the 2016 presidential election. Results of our analysis support our expectations that following Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on social media leads to increased identification with that candidate, which then affects candidate support. 相似文献
16.
《Government Information Quarterly》2023,40(1):101782
The popularity of contemporary social media (SM) has impacted democratic practices, and the success of presidential campaigns is frequently attributed to SM performance. Within this new scenario, many methodological proposals that use SM data have been put forward for predicting election results. However, the most common approach, based on the volume and sentiment analysis of mentions on Twitter, has been frequently criticized and challenged. Thus, recent surveys have indicated new directions, such as the use of data from more than one SM platform, the adoption of nonlinear machine learning (ML) models, and the validation of methodologies and experiments in different elections. In this context, the present paper proposes SoMEN, the Social Media framework for Election Nowcasting, a framework composed of a process and an ML model for nowcasting election results based on SM performance as features and with offline polls as labeled data. It also defines SoMEN-DC, an execution strategy for SoMEN that enables continuous prediction during the campaign (DC). The proposed metrics and framework were applied to some of the main recent presidential elections in Latin America: Argentina (2019), Brazil (2018), Colombia (2018), and Mexico (2018). More than 65,000 posts were collected from the SM profiles of candidates on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram with data from 195 presidential polls. Results have demonstrated that it was possible to achieve a high level of accuracy in predicting the final vote share of the candidates and to make daily predictions, providing competitive or better results than the traditional polls. The strategies put forward in this study have attempted to address several of the current challenges in this research area and have indicated a new manner of how to face the problems. They may also be directly used for predicting future elections in similar scenarios. 相似文献
17.
This experiment (N = 198), conducted just before the 2008 presidential election, set out to examine the effects of tone and sponsorship in current political advertising, the first such study since campaign law began requiring candidates to approve their ads explicitly. In another first, we also examined the role of reactance in responses to political advertising. With regard to tone, positive ads received higher ad evaluation and cognitive response valence scores and less reactance than negative ads, but negative ads led to a greater likelihood of turning out to vote. Moreover, those without a strong candidate preference were more likely to vote for a candidate supported by a negative ad. Sponsorship had little effect on its own, but there were some intriguing interactions with political knowledge such that high-knowledge respondents had less reactance and lower opponent ratings, whereas moderate-knowledge respondents had the opposite reaction. We also found that reactance appears to play a major role in the effects of political advertising. It was associated directly with more negative cognitive responses, ad, and candidate evaluations and indirectly with lower intention to vote for the candidate supported by the ad, but it had no relationship with intent to turn out to vote. 相似文献
18.
Gary Hanson Audrey Wagstaff Cunningham Rekha Sharma J. D. Ponder 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(5):584-607
Considerable research over the years has been devoted to ascertaining the impact of media use on political cynicism. The impact of the Internet has been difficult to assess because it is not a single monolithic medium. For example, the 2008 presidential campaign was the first presidential campaign in which popular social networking sites such as Facebook, MySpace, and YouTube were widely available to voters. Therefore, the campaign offered the first opportunity to explore the influence of these social media on political cynicism. In this study, we examined whether the use of such social media influenced political cynicism. We also considered the influence of user background characteristics (e.g., self-efficacy, locus of control, political orientation, demographics, and influence of family and friends), motives for using social media for political information, and users’ elaboration on political content. Several individual differences were stronger predictors of political cynicism than was social media use. In fact, social networking use was a negative predictor of political cynicism. Results supported uses and gratifications’ notions that the influence of social media on political cynicism is more attributable to user background and media-use differences than to sheer use of these popular sites. 相似文献
19.
《Communication monographs》2012,79(4):335-350
Televised debates are now an expected component of the American presidential election campaign. A meta-analysis was used to cumulate the research on the effects of watching presidential debates. General campaign debates increase issue knowledge and issue salience (the number of issues a voter uses to evaluate candidates) and can change preference for candidates' issue stands. Debates can have an agenda-setting effect. Debates can alter perceptions of the candidates' personality, but they do not exert a significant effect on perceptions of the candidates' competence (leadership ability). Debates can affect vote preference. Primary debates increase issue knowledge, influence perceptions of candidates' character, and can alter voter preferences (the effect sizes for these variables are larger in primary than general debates). The effect sizes for the dependent variables with significant effects were heterogeneous (except for effects of debates other than the first on vote preference). No support was found for several possible moderator variables on issue knowledge, character perceptions, candidate competence, and vote preference: nature of subject pool (students, nonstudents), study design (pretest/posttest, viewers/nonviewers), number of days between debate and election, or data collection method (public opinion poll or experimenter data). The first debate in a series had a larger effect on vote preference than other debates, but was not a moderator for other dependent variables. The possibility that other moderator variables are at work cannot be rejected. 相似文献
20.
《Government Information Quarterly》2022,39(4):101658
Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies between polls and outcomes at several major elections and referendums, stemming from decreased participation in polls and an increasingly volatile electorate. This calls for new ways to measure public support for political parties. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring the popularity of election candidates on social media using Machine Learning-based Natural Language Processing techniques. The method is based on detecting voting intentions in the data. This is a considerable advance upon earlier work using automatic sentiment analysis. We evaluate the method both intrinsically on a set of hand-labelled social media posts, and extrinsically – by forecasting daily election polls. In the extrinsic evaluation, we analyze data from the 2016 US presidential election, and find that voting intentions measured from social media provide significant additional predictive value for forecasting daily polls. Thus, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to interpolate polls both spatially and temporally, thus providing reliable, continuous and fine-grained information about public opinion on current political issues. 相似文献