体育多种预测方法的比较研究     

陈志强  黄明教  杨德芳 《成都体育学院学报》2001,27(1):53-56,62

摘要：运用相关回归、标准百分和多级多类判别理论，建立多元回归和单元回归预测模型，所建立的y1、y2、y3模型预测值准确度高，与实际专项成绩值的相关性显著、t检无差异、有显著的线性关系、tr检验呈高度相关。其中，y2模型预测值的准确度更高，建模方法更具简便性、实效性。  相似文献   

体育多种预测方法的比较研究     

李瑞文  蔡忠建  姜伯乐 《北京体育大学学报》2004,27(12):1654-1656

运用3种不同的方法所建立的多元回归预测模型,其回归预测值的准确度均达到了99.26%以上,其回归的预测值与实际值的方差分析检验均呈无差异性,P》0.50水平.说明3种不同的方法所建立的预测模型的预测值均具有显著性意义.在3种建模方法中,均有评价作用,且其评价目的也不尽相同.在体育运动实践中可依据研究的目的,选择建模方法,以提高体育预测研究的效益.  相似文献   

波罗的海运价指数波动规律研究与预测   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李正宏 《上海海事大学学报》2004,25(4):69-72

以波罗的海国际干散货运价指数(BFI)为研究对象,分析其长期趋势性波动规律,得到BFI的长期波动服从幂函数模型。结合统计分析工具分析BFI的季节性波动规律,得到每月的季节指数。在剔除趋势性和季节性因素后,建立ARMA预测模型,并进行拟合和误差分析。结果表明,ARMA预测模型对BFI指数的短期预测效果很好,特别是一步预测精度很高。  相似文献   

The analysis and forecasting of male cycling time trial records established within England and Wales     

Bryce Dyer  Hossein Hassani  Mehran Shadi 《Journal of sports sciences》2016,34(13):1222-1230

The format of cycling time trials in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, involves riders competing individually over several fixed race distances of 10–100 miles in length and using time constrained formats of 12 and 24 h in duration. Drawing on data provided by the national governing body that covers the regions of England and Wales, an analysis of six male competition record progressions was undertaken to illustrate its progression. Future forecasts are then projected through use of the Singular Spectrum Analysis technique. This method has not been applied to sport-based time series data before. All six records have seen a progressive improvement and are non-linear in nature. Five records saw their highest level of record change during the 1950–1969 period. Whilst new record frequency generally has reduced since this period, the magnitude of performance improvement has generally increased. The Singular Spectrum Analysis technique successfully provided forecasted projections in the short to medium term with a high level of fit to the time series data.  相似文献   

One hundred and fifty years of sprint and distance running – Past trends and future prospects     

Martin Weiss  Alexandra Newman  Ceri Whitmore  Stephan Weiss 《European Journal of Sport Science》2016,16(4):393-401

Sprint and distance running have experienced remarkable performance improvements over the past century. Attempts to forecast running performances share an almost similarly long history but have relied so far on relatively short data series. Here, we compile a comprehensive set of season-best performances for eight Olympically contested running events. With this data set, we conduct (1) an exponential time series analysis and (2) a power-law experience curve analysis to quantify the rate of past performance improvements and to forecast future performances until the year 2100. We find that the sprint and distance running performances of women and men improve exponentially with time and converge at yearly rates of 4% ± 3% and 2% ± 2%, respectively, towards their asymptotic limits. Running performances can also be modelled with the experience curve approach, yielding learning rates of 3% ± 1% and 6% ± 2% for the women's and men's events, respectively. Long-term trends suggest that: (1) women will continue to run 10–20% slower than men, (2) 9.50 s over 100 m dash may only be broken at the end of this century and (3) several middle- and long-distance records may be broken within the next two to three decades. The prospects of witnessing a sub-2 hour marathon before 2100 remain inconclusive. Our results should be interpreted cautiously as forecasting human behaviour is intrinsically uncertain. The future season-best sprint and distance running performances will continue to scatter around the trends identified here and may yield unexpected improvements of standing world records.  相似文献   

连云港市"十一五"宏观经济预测模型研究     

潘东旭  南海  查东兰  杨岩 《连云港职业技术学院学报》2005,18(3):11-17

选取连云港市1990-2003年期间主要经济指标作为样本数据，通过建立计量经济联立方程模型．利用EVIEWS3．1的二阶段最小二乘法对方程进行回归和检验，对“十一五”期间连云港市主要经济指标进行了预测分析，据此，提出政策建议：（1）加快工业化进程，优化产业结构；（2）千方百计扩大投资规模；（3）增强消费者信心，进一步刺激消费；（4）统筹城乡发展，增加农民收入；（5）进一步壮大港口经济；（6）大力发展非公有经济。  相似文献   

《易经》的预测理论探析     

朱光文 《安顺师范高等专科学校学报》2011,(5):84-86

文章从《易经》索源、孔子设卦以及《易经》预测的科学性等几个方面论述中国古代经典《易经》中的预测理论,认为《周易》的预测是建立在对事物的原始要终、消息变化的探究之上。  相似文献   

高校财务风险综合评价与预警研究     

张曾莲  吴雪琴 《山西财经大学学报(高等教育版)》2011,14(1):1-7

以北京市25所部属高校的财务数据为基础,基于重要性原则选取了19个财务指标,构建了财务风险评价体系,通过因子分析选出5个公因子,建立了财务风险预警模型,并用吉林大学的财务数据对模型进行了稳健性验证。利用财务风险预警模型可以评价各高校的财务风险程度,促进高校风险防范的制度化、投资决策的科学化、决策程序的规范化和运行风险的最小化。  相似文献   

基于灰色系统GM（1,1）的组合预测模型及其应用     

肖涛  李若琦  霍红云 《保定师专学报》2011,(3):41-45

建立了一种基于灰色系统GM（1,1）的组合预测模型,该模型的预测结果是一个区间.建立的模型提高了预测精度及实用性,并进一步将其应用于上海世博会入园参观人数的预测.  相似文献   

高新技术企业运行发展预警模型研究——以湛江市高新技术企业为例     

胡意  邹倩瑜  郑宏松 《科技管理研究》2020,40(5):89-97

针对高新技术企业认定后的运行发展监测盲点,分析高新技术企业运行登记指标,利用突变级数法建立高新技术企业运行发展预警模型。并通过预警模型,开展湛江市2015—2017年高新技术企业运行发展预警情况实证分析,并运用灰色预测模型方法对湛江市部分高新技术企业未来运行发展情况进行预测。  相似文献