气候变暖对黄土高原塬区农作物生长和气候生产力的影响   总被引：29，自引：1，他引：29  

张谋草  段金省  李宗  黄斌  张红妮 《资源科学》2006,28(6):46-50

分析气候变暖对黄土高原塬区作物发育期的影响表明：气候变暖使冬小麦越冬前各发育期日期推后，越冬后各发育期日期提前；冬小麦全生育期生长天数缩短，每10年缩短8.3天，主要是越冬期（休眠期）缩短，每10年缩短6.8天；冬小麦越冬死亡率降低。使玉米各发育期日期提前，但播种期、三叶期、拔节期、抽雄期日期提前较小，其变化速率仅为0.5天～1.1天/10年；而乳熟期、成熟期日期提前较多，变化速率为3.5天～9.0天/10年。冬小麦、玉米气候产量变化与干旱发生程度有关，干旱越严重，气候产量越低。年气候生产力40年(1961年～2000年)呈递减趋势，递减率为1.13kg～19.21kg/(hm²·年)，从对未来假定的气候变化年型看，以暖湿型气候年型对农业生产最为有利，年气候生产力增加13.7%～31.2%；冷干型气候对农业生产不利，年气候生产力减少5.1%～27.1%。  相似文献   

SWAT 2000气象模拟器的随机模拟原理、验证及改进   总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13  

张东  张万昌  张东 《资源科学》2004,26(4):28-36

该文详细介绍了SWAT 2000气象模拟器(最高、最低气温、太阳辐射)的随机模拟原理,利用甘肃河西地区酒泉、张掖等7个站的完整气象资料,提出了气候条件相似的区域气象台站月平均气象数据的计算方法,并计算出模拟器需要的输入参数,对气象模拟结果进行了验证.在此基础上利用逐日平均气温修正模拟生成的最高、最低气温并求5日滑动平均,对模拟器进行了改进.通过模拟结果与气象台站实测资料的对比可以看出,改进后最高气温相关系数从0.85提高到0.90,最低气温相关系数从0.89提高到0.94,气温数据模拟精度有一定提高.最后利用改进后的气象模拟器对河西黑河地区祁连、札马什克、莺落峡3个数据短缺站点进行了气温和太阳辐射的模拟,通过SWAT模型的应用证明模拟结果能够满足分布式水文模型的气象输入数据精度要求.  相似文献   

近50年来黄河源区流量对气候变化的响应及其未来变化趋势预测   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

刘彩红  朱西德  白彦芳 《资源科学》2011,33(7):1236-1241

利用1961年-2009年黄河上游唐乃亥水文站水文资料及同期该流域气象资料,研究黄河源区流量对气候变化的响应及预测模型,并根据气候模式输出数据,经降尺度处理生成的未来气候情景,对未来黄河源区流量进行了预估。结果表明：近49a间,源区气温呈波动上升态势;蒸发量显著增大,年均降水量没有出现明显的趋势性变化,但具有明显的年际和年代际振荡。源区流量的变化与降水量、气温及蒸发的变化相关关系显著,近49a年来,由于气温的持续上升导致径流蒸散发损耗超过降水量的补给,源区流量总体呈减少趋势。预测未来两个时期2020s、2050s,源区年平均流量分别为593.61m3/s和525.11m3/s,较气候标准期1961年-1990年分别减少14.9%和24.7%。  相似文献   

领导者的发展理论研究述评     

凌茜 《科学与管理》2012,(3):16-21

近年来,欧美领导学理论工作者开始关注领导者的发展问题。他们指出,领导者的发展直接影响着企业和广大员工的长远发展,因此,学术界和实业界都应重视领导者的发展问题。本文介绍欧美学者对领导者的发展的内涵、计量方法、影响因素等方面的研究概况,并提出今后的研究方向。  相似文献   

美国国家环保局(EPA)温室气体清单编制机制     

吴伟强  吴安琪 《科学与管理》2012,(2):11-21

美国虽拒签《京都议定书》,但仍积极编制本国的温室气体清单。本文基于对IPCC和EPA温室气体清单方法学的比较研究,并通过对EPA温室气体清单编制的演变过程、流程和特点的系统分析,揭示其内在机制。以期借鉴较为成熟的温室气体清单编制方法,完善我国温室气体排放的核算体系。  相似文献   

大连市气候变化适应度评价   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

崔利芳  任学慧 《资源科学》2012,34(2):273-279

选取大连市1960年-2009年月平均气温和降水量资料,运用线性倾向估计和Morlet小波分析探讨了近50a大连市气候变化特征,表明50a来年均气温显著上升,其中冬、春季的增幅最大,降水量总体上呈下降趋势,基本经历了＂减少-增加-减少-增加＂的变化过程。在此背景下,根据系统之间的动态耦合原理,选取社会、经济、农业和资源环境系统作为大连市气候变化适应度的评价子系统,利用主成分分析法,确定2000年-2009年气候系统与评价系统的综合发展水平,然后运用模糊数学中的隶属度函数,判定大连气候变化的适应度。结果表明：2000年-2009年大连市气候系统的综合发展水平波动性较大,但总体上处于上升态势,评价子系统的发展水平也显著提高,而且两者具有明显的阶段性特征;2000年-2009年大连市气候变化的适应度总体上呈微弱的下降趋势,尤其是从2007年开始,下滑程度较大。  相似文献   

敦煌绿洲1955 年至2010 年胡杨年生长季对气候变化的响应     

刘普幸  杨泉 《资源科学》2012,34(3):566-571

利用敦煌绿洲气象站1955年-2010年日平均气温资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验、相关分析及Morlet小波功率谱等方法分析了研究区胡杨生长季对全球气候变化的响应。结果表明：近56a来,研究区胡杨年生长季有开始日提前,终止日推后,年生长季天数延长的趋势;展叶始日有提前趋势,叶黄初日有推后趋势。胡杨生长季开始日、展叶始日分别与3月和4月平均气温呈负相关关系,胡杨生长季终止日、生长期天数及叶黄初日分别与10月、3月-11月及8月-9月平均气温呈正相关关系。胡杨生长季开始日、终止日、生长季天数、展叶期及叶黄初日均具有多个突变,存在3.77~8.33a的短尺度周期,这反映出研究区胡杨生长季对气候变化响应十分敏感。  相似文献   

The effects of atmospheric moisture on the mural paintings of the Mogao Grottoes     

Hongshou Li  Wanfu Wang  Hongtao Zhan  Fei Qiu  Qinglin Guo  Shenli Sun 《文物保护研究》2017,62(4):229-239

The aim of this paper is to study the influence of atmospheric humidity and temperature on the mural paintings in the Mogao Grottoes of Dunhuang by measuring the weight of a simulated mural block. Under open conditions, the daily changes in the atmospheric humidity and temperature have an apparent effect on the water content of these murals. There exists an obvious water exchange between atmosphere and mural, that is, there is a ±43?g?m^?2 moisture absorption–desorption ‘breathing’ process between the two. Evapotranspiration from the tree-belt, precipitation, and extremely dry weather also have an effect on the moisture associated with a mural painting. If the cave is closed, a comparable study finds that closure can make the effects of temperature and humidity changes disappear. The mural water content in this case remains stable and the harm due to water-salt deterioration is greatly reduced. Under closed conditions, artificial condensation dehumidification and control of the cave's temperature and humidity stabilizes water activity in the mural paintings very effectively. This is a clear indication of the future steps required to protect the cave's cultural relics.  相似文献   

Professional development design considerations in climate change education: teacher enactment and student learning     

Andrea Drewes  Joseph Henderson  Chrystalla Mouza 《International Journal of Science Education》2018,40(1):67-89

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology, we focused analytic attention on how one teacher made particular pedagogical and content decisions, and the implications for student’s conceptual learning. Using anthropological theories of conceptual travel, we traced salient ideas through instructional delivery and into student reasoning. Analysis showed that students gained an increased understanding of the enhanced greenhouse effect and the implications of human activity on this enhanced effect at statistically significant levels and with moderate effect sizes. However, students demonstrated a limited, though non-significant gain on the likely effects of climate change. Student reasoning on the tangible actions to deal with these problems also remained underdeveloped, reflecting omissions in both PD and teacher enactment. We discuss implications for the emerging field of climate change education.  相似文献   

Climate beliefs in an oil-dependent economy: Norwegian pre-service science teachers’ attitudes towards climate change     

Frode Skarstein 《Environmental Education Research》2020,26(4):491-510

Abstract

A large proportion of people in western societies do not believe in the concept of human-induced climate change (HICC), and oil-dependent economies might be expected to have more climate contrarian populations than others. Recent recessions in the Norwegian oil industry caused an influx of dismissed oil engineers into Norwegian science teacher education. With their background in the natural sciences and associations with the oil industry, this group of pre-service teachers might express mixed attitudes towards HICC and how to approach this subject while teaching. A survey of students attending a one-year course for qualifying people with a university degree in science as science teachers was conducted. Association with the oil industry covaries with climate skeptic thinking and reluctance towards teaching about HICC in these groups of students. This suggests that a green shift might create an influx of climate contrarian views into schools in oil-dependent economies.  相似文献