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1.
《Government Information Quarterly》2022,39(4):101745
Contemporary social media (SM) has strongly impacted democratic practices. The success of presidential campaigns is frequently attributed to being highly correlated with the candidates' social media performance, but there is no well-established method to measure this performance. Thus, this study aims to improve the understanding of a politician's performance on SM and its correlation with electoral results. Applying a new, recently-defined set of metrics, based on Zajonc's exposition theory and considering the interactions of users on politicians' profiles in multiple SM platforms, this research identifies statistical correlations between SM performance and the votes received in multiple elections. As case studies, this paper focuses on the most recent presidential elections in the four most populous countries in Latin America: Argentina (2019), Brazil (2018), Colombia (2018), and Mexico (2018). Data from more than 65,000 posts were collected from the SM profiles of the main candidates on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, starting from 300 days before the election days, and correlations with electoral results were calculated. The results demonstrated strong correlations between the defined metrics and the votes received, particularly the engagement per post, although there were differences among countries. On the other hand, we observed that there is zero or negative correlation between the number of posts and the electoral results. 相似文献
2.
《Government Information Quarterly》2022,39(4):101658
Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies between polls and outcomes at several major elections and referendums, stemming from decreased participation in polls and an increasingly volatile electorate. This calls for new ways to measure public support for political parties. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring the popularity of election candidates on social media using Machine Learning-based Natural Language Processing techniques. The method is based on detecting voting intentions in the data. This is a considerable advance upon earlier work using automatic sentiment analysis. We evaluate the method both intrinsically on a set of hand-labelled social media posts, and extrinsically – by forecasting daily election polls. In the extrinsic evaluation, we analyze data from the 2016 US presidential election, and find that voting intentions measured from social media provide significant additional predictive value for forecasting daily polls. Thus, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to interpolate polls both spatially and temporally, thus providing reliable, continuous and fine-grained information about public opinion on current political issues. 相似文献
3.
The effects of new communication technologies on election campaigns, and the effectiveness of media-centered campaign strategies more broadly, remain ongoing subjects for debate in political science. This study provides some of the first empirical evidence about the potential impact of social media on the 2012 U.S. presidential elections, by testing the association between “candidate salience” and the candidates' level of engagement in online social media sphere. We define “candidate salience” as the extent to which candidates are discussed online by the public in an election campaign, and have selected the number of mentions presidential candidates receive on the social media site, Twitter, as means of quantifying their salience. This strategy allows us to examine whether social media, which is widely recognized as disruptive in the broader economic and social domains, has the potential to change the traditional dynamics of U.S. election campaigns. We find that while social media does substantially expand the possible modes and methods of election campaigning, high levels of social media activity on the part of presidential candidates have, as of yet, resulted in minimal effects on the amount of public attention they receive online. 相似文献
4.
This study investigates the perceived impact of election polls,focusing on the hotly contested 2000 U.S. presidential election.Survey data from 558 individuals gathered during the final daysof the election campaign are analyzed to examine beliefs thatthe polls greatly affect other voters, general views of pollsas good or bad for the country, beliefs about whether pollstersinfluence their results to come out a certain way, and supportfor banning election-night projections. Results indicate thatmost respondents felt the polls had no influence on themselveswhile still affecting others. Respondents exhibiting these ‘third-person-effect’perceptions were significantly more likely than others to believethat election polls are a bad thing for the country. Negativeperceptions of polls and beliefs that pollsters try to influenceresults were also related to general distrust of the news media.Negative views of polls in turn were associated with increasedsupport for prohibiting election-night projections. In general,the results illustrate the dependency of negative views aboutpolling on fears of untoward effects on voters, in particularthe fear that polls and election projections might lend supportto candidates opposed by the respondent. 相似文献
5.
An examination of the news images of US presidential candidatessuggests that journalists portray candidates in ways consistentwith their position in the race. Strong candidates were generallygiven strong news images and weak candidates were saddled withweak images. Significantly, this pattern held also for the samecandidate if his position in the race changed. In 1988 Bush'snews image went from weak to strong when he surged ahead inthe polls during the general election. Such news images appearto affect voters' images of the candidates: to some degree,voters accept journalists' portrayals of the candidates. 相似文献
6.
Uncommitted voters in pre-election polls include both thosewho have not yet made their choices (undecided voters) and thosewho have already made their choices but do not disclose them,for any reason (undeclared voters). The voting patterns of theseuncommitted voters are critical, especially in cases in whichthe size of the group is greater than the gap between the twoleading runners in an electoral race. In the present study,discriminant analysis was applied to predict the voting patternsof the uncommitted voters in two different election situations:the 1992 presidential election in the state of North Carolina,USA, and the 1992 presidential election in South Korea. Theadjusted percentage breakdown, which was created after discriminantanalysis assigned the uncommitted voters for each candidate,appeared noticeably closer to the actual results than the simplepercentage breakdown with the uncommitted voters excluded fromthe analysis. Discriminant analysis was also applied to predictthe effect of one candidate's possible withdrawal from electionswith several candidates. By treating the former supporters ofthe withdrawing candidate as another uncommitted group, discriminantanalysis provided a new percentage breakdown among the remainingcandidates; the result was consistent with experts' intuitiveprediction. 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACTThis study introduces and evaluates the robustness of different volumetric, sentiment, and social network approaches to predict the elections in three Asian countries – Malaysia, India, and Pakistan from Twitter posts. We find that predictive power of social media performs well for India and Pakistan but is not effective for Malaysia. Overall, we find that it is useful to consider the recency of Twitter posts while using it to predict a real outcome, such as an election result. Sentiment information mined using machine learning models was the most accurate predictor of election outcomes. Social network information is stable despite sudden surges in political discussions, for e.g. around elections-related news events. Methods combining sentiment and volume information, or sentiment and social network information, are effective at predicting smaller vote shares, for e.g. vote shares in the case of independent candidates and regional parties. We conclude with a detailed discussion on the caveats of social media analysis for predicting real-world outcomes and recommendations for future work. 相似文献
8.
Geri Alumit Zeldes Ph.D. Frederick Fico Ph.D. Serena Carpenter Ph.D. Arvind Diddi Ph.D. 《广播与电子媒介杂志》2013,57(4):563-580
This study conceptualizes news bias as a causal factor producing systematic imbalance in the coverage of conflicting sides. Partisan bias is distinguished from structural bias by coverage that systematically favors one side with more prominence and attention. Content analysis was used to compare the television networks' balance in their treatment of Republican and Democratic candidates in stories and segments covering the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Presidential candidates received balanced aggregate treatment in both elections. But individual networks differed in their partisan balance. CBS News consistently favored the Democratic candidate in both elections, unlike the mixed results for ABC and NBC. CBS's pattern of imbalance, especially in the 2004 election, suggests a possible political bias in its coverage. 相似文献
9.
Jungsub Shin 《亚洲交流杂志》2017,27(3):233-249
Which issues do political parties emphasize in campaigns? Selecting the issues to emphasize in campaigns is treated with the same importance as policy positioning. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to understanding parties’ strategies of issue competition in presidential elections under multiparty systems. By analyzing statements of presidential candidates in the 2002, 2007, and 2012 Korean presidential debates, we find that presidential candidates use their issue emphasis strategies differently in presidential elections according to party size and ideological relationships with other parties. Specifically, a small party’s candidates have been more likely than mainstream parties’ candidates to pursue their issue ownership advantage. In addition, a mainstream party’s candidates have emphasized the issues of a small party more than those of his own party when the two parties have had a similar ideological foundation, whereas, when there were no such ideological similarities, a mainstream party’s candidate has only focused on issues of the mainstream party. Our results imply that the political communication used by political parties and candidates is conditioned not only by political contexts such as electoral systems or party systems but also by the size and ideology of parties. 相似文献
10.
Gang Han Ph.D. 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(1):62-81
Based on General Social Survey data, this study employs logit models to clarify the effects of new media use and sociodemographic characteristics on voter turnout in the 2000 presidential election. It also discusses the predicting power of social-demographics on new media use behavior. Findings highlight that the behavior of actively seeking political information online, which can be expected by the level of education and income of Internet users, raised their likelihood of voting. General Internet exposure, which is reduced by age and affected by gender, however, could not increase the turnout as expected. Among sociodemographic indicators, education counted the most in the 2000 presidential election. People's sociodemographic characteristics were stronger predictors than their new media use behavior for voter turnout. 相似文献
11.
Do presidential candidates adapt their spot messages to the public's interests? This study conducts a computer content analysis of the texts of presidential television spots from 1952–2000. Public opinion poll data on the most important issues for voters, in each campaign, are used to structure the searches. The extent to which candidate spot messages conform to the public issue agenda is determined. Democrats’ and challengers’ spot messages are significantly more aligned with the public policy priorities than Republicans or incumbents. There is no significant difference between the correlations for winners versus losers. Finally, in 5 of the 13 elections there is a significant relationship between the issues covered by the two candidates. Clearly, some candidates are better at adapting their television messages to voters and in some elections the candidates tend to discuss the same policy issues. 相似文献
12.
Maria Elizabeth Grabe Lelia Samson Asta Zelenkauskaite Narine S. Yegiyan 《广播与电子媒介杂志》2013,57(3):285-306
This content analysis reveals that men and women network news correspondents differed in how they covered 4 presidential elections (1992–2004). There were fewer women than men reporters involved in election coverage, but on average, women reported more stories than men and were tonally tougher watchdogs than men. In terms of framing candidates, male reporters were strongly associated with a masculine approach that emphasized the competitiveness of campaigns. By contrast, women correspondents employed both more feminine and gender-neutral frames than their male colleagues. These findings were interpreted against the backdrop of information derived from in-depth interviews with 5 women reporters who appeared in the sampled content. 相似文献
13.
Congressional elections are crucial to the American political system and candidates spend millions of dollars seeking votes with television spots. Unfortunately, the literature in this area is a hodgepodge of studies (with different methods and samples) rather than a comprehensive analysis of congressional television advertising. This study utilized the Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse to content analyze 744 television spots for House and Senate candidates from 1980–2004. Candidate discourse in these spots employed acclaiming (positive) strategies much more frequently than attacking (negative) or defending (refutational) strategies. Unlike discourse in presidential campaigns, congressional TV spots tend to place equal emphasis on policy and character (although since 1992 the emphasis has been on policy). Democrats tend to attack more and to discuss policy more than their counterparts. Incumbents acclaimed more and attacked less than challengers, whereas open-seat candidates have a style that lies between these two extremes. Open-seat candidates discuss past deeds less frequently than incumbents or challengers, both of whom tend to rely on the incumbent's record to attack (challengers) or to acclaim (incumbents). 相似文献
14.
《Government Information Quarterly》2020,37(2):101444
Since the beginning of this decade, there has seen an exponential growth in number of internet users using social media, especially Twitter for sharing their views on various topics of common interest like sports, products, politics etc. Due to the active participation of large number of people on Twitter, huge amount of data (i.e. big data) is being generated, which can be put to use (after refining) to analyze real world problems. This paper takes into consideration the Twitter data related to the 2017 Punjab (a state of India) assembly elections and applies different social media analytic techniques on collected tweets to extract and unearth hidden but useful information. In addition to this, we have employed machine learning algorithm to perform polarity analysis and have proposed a new seat forecasting method to accurately predict the number of seats that a political party is likely to win in the elections. Our results confirmed that Indian National Congress was likely to emerge winner and that in fact was the outcome, when results got declared. 相似文献
15.
Penelope Sheets David S. Domke Christopher Wells Colin J. Lingle Amanda Ballantyne Fahed Al-Sumait 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(6):765-786
In their public messages, United States politicians often invoke America in an attempt to unite citizens and build electoral coalitions. Such an emphasis is particularly common in presidential debates, which are climactic “media events” late in campaigns for the White House, when candidates take questions from journalists and citizens while addressing millions of voters. We analyzed the connection between (a) candidates' highlighting of national identity in presidential debates and (b) mass public opinion since 1960. We expected and found that (a) candidates increased their emphasis on the nation during times of heightened national uncertainty, (b) Democratic presidential candidates invoked the nation more often than Republican candidates, and (c) comparisons across elections among incumbents suggest that national uncertainty was more important than partisan identity in eliciting invocations of the nation. 相似文献
16.
This research examines how TV reported the campaign and the candidates during Taiwan's first‐ever presidential election in 1996. A content analysis of evening news coverage of six TV stations indicated that the state‐owned broadcast TV stations were far more likely than the privately owned cable TV stations to give a greater amount of coverage and soundbites to the ruling party presidential and vice presidential candidates, using the ruling party officials as principal news sources. The TV Stations’ coverage also contained more news favourable to the ruling party candidates than to other candidates. The future may well see a turning point in TV election coverage as well as in general news coverage in Taiwan. The three state‐owned broadcast TV stations face competition from privately owned cable TV stations and may soon be confronted with the loss of public trust and audience, unless they can provide fair and balanced news free from government control. 相似文献
17.
Hyunjung Kim 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(3):303-324
This study explores how the perceived effect and bias of reported election poll results are associated with voters' attitudes toward restrictions on polling reports and their political participation intention through emotions. A telephone survey using a representative sample of South Korean voters (N = 597) was conducted prior to the 2012 South Korean presidential election. Results indicate that the third-person perception of reported election poll results was indirectly linked to support for restrictions on polling reports through anxiety. For supporters of Mr. Jae In Moon, the nominee of the liberal Democratic United Party, who was reported to be behind in the polls, the hostile media perception was indirectly associated with support for restrictions through anxiety and directly associated with political participation intention. Implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
18.
《Communication monographs》2012,79(3):259-273
Research on the effects of watching presidential debates tends to show that these messages can foster learning about the candidates' issue positions and influence voters' impressions of the candidates. This study uses a pretest/posttest design to assess more subtle effects of watching a 2000 presidential debate on attitudes and vote intention. Leadership and overall policy stance became more important factors in vote choice after watching the debate. Specific groups of issues also became more important in vote choice. Viewers reacted to the candidates differentially: Bush enhanced perceptions of his character (but not of his policy positions), while Gore improved perceptions of his policy positions (but not of his character). The data also reveal that the debates increased the confidence of vote choices for those who did not change their preferred candidate over the course of this study (which could make them more likely to vote on election day and/or less likely to change their vote choice). This study demonstrates a variety of potentially important effects of watching presidential debates. 相似文献
19.
TV evening news coverage of the 2008 presidential election by broadcast, cable, and public networks was predominately male and Caucasian in terms of reporters and sources. However, according to our content analysis of 888 campaign stories, viewers saw the least amount of source diversity if they watched the evening news on broadcast networks ABC, CBS, and NBC. Cable networks FOX and CNN, and the PBS evening news had more female and non-White sources. This pattern also holds true for reporter use of nonpartisan sources. Findings on the 2008 election for the traditional broadcast networks are not consistent with those for the 2000 and 2004 elections, when female reporters at these networks had more female and nonpartisan sources in their election coverage than did their male colleagues. Reporters at PBS provided the greatest overall source diversity, regardless of their race or gender, compared to what was observed on broadcast and cable networks. Differences in the way reporters used women and non-White sources to cover the 2008 presidential race may be attributable to organizational factors. 相似文献
20.
Decades of communication research have demonstrated that political candidate images are important predictors of electoral success and that campaign communication influences these image perceptions. However, questions remain about the relative importance of various facets of candidate image, how electoral context and partisanship influence the salience of these facets, and whether privileged classes enjoy presumption in image facets that reinforce their dominant position in politics. These questions require a new approach to image research. We propose a multifactor approach that explores the relative importance of six image traits: character, intelligence, leadership, benevolence, homophily, and charm. The benefits of this approach are illustrated through application to two electoral contexts, the 2012 U.S. presidential election and the 2014 U.S. midterm elections. 相似文献