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1.
This study investigates the perceived impact of election polls,focusing on the hotly contested 2000 U.S. presidential election.Survey data from 558 individuals gathered during the final daysof the election campaign are analyzed to examine beliefs thatthe polls greatly affect other voters, general views of pollsas good or bad for the country, beliefs about whether pollstersinfluence their results to come out a certain way, and supportfor banning election-night projections. Results indicate thatmost respondents felt the polls had no influence on themselveswhile still affecting others. Respondents exhibiting these ‘third-person-effect’perceptions were significantly more likely than others to believethat election polls are a bad thing for the country. Negativeperceptions of polls and beliefs that pollsters try to influenceresults were also related to general distrust of the news media.Negative views of polls in turn were associated with increasedsupport for prohibiting election-night projections. In general,the results illustrate the dependency of negative views aboutpolling on fears of untoward effects on voters, in particularthe fear that polls and election projections might lend supportto candidates opposed by the respondent. 相似文献
2.
Ball-Rokeach S. J.; Power Gerard J.; Guthrie K. Kendall; Waring H. Ross 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1990,2(3):249-273
This paper is in the tradition of social analysis aimed at creatingframeworks to join mass media and public opinion processes (e.g.Clarke and Evans, 1983; Gamson, 1975; Gitlin, 1980; Hall, 1977;Iyengar and Kinder, 1987; Lang and Lang, 1968, 1983; Lippman,1922; Mollotch and Lester, 1974; Noelle-Neuman, 1974; Paletzand Entman, 1981; Shaw and McCombs, 1977; Turner and Paz, 1986).After a brief review of media system dependency (MSD) theory,we illustrate how it may apply to public opinion processes thatentail contested issue ‘value-frames’ (Ball-Rokeachand Rokeach, 1987). In such cases, the media system is directlyimplicated in the negotiation of legitimacy of opposing positionson an issue. Our illustrative case is the abortion issue asit has been played out in the United States over recent decades(Luker, 1984). We focus upon the respective capacities of pro-and anti-abortion movements to control the value-frame of mediacoverage of the issue (Guthrie, 1989). A value-frame may beconceived as ‘... the main substantive theme of a moralityplay’ (Ball-Rokeach and Tallman, 1979) wherein the distinctionbetween ‘good’ and ‘bad’ hangs in thebalance; in this case, between positions on abortion. We suggestthat change in the value-frame of media coverage and publicdiscourse may be understood, at least in part, as an outcomeof change in contestants' MSD relations. 相似文献
3.
Here is a book that makes you want to shout, ‘Finally!’For decades, political scientists and communication researchershave been focusing intensively on the question of how peoplemake their final voting decision and how this decision is influencedby reporting in the mass media and campaign advertising. Nevertheless,even though there is enough literature on this subject to filla library, only very few studies have dealt with the issue ofemotional appeals in election coverage and campaign advertising—andvoters’ emotional, possibly irrational reactions to theseappeals. Although numerous findings in the fields of psychology,neuroscience, and behavioral research suggest that emotionalappeals and reactions play an important role when it comes toall kinds of decisions—which, of course, also includesvoting decisions—social researchers in the United Statesand elsewhere have, 相似文献
4.
This study investigated the extent to which the third-personeffect—the tendency of people to estimate greater impactof media messages on ‘other people’ than on themselves—mightdepend upon question-contrast effects (i.e. self-serving comparisonstriggered by back-to-back questions dealing with effect on othersand oneself), the order of questions, and respondents' levelsof background political knowledge. Two hundred and eighty-sevensubjects participated in two experimental studies involvingquestions about media coverage of President Clinton's possiblerole in the ‘Whitewater Affair’, his alleged frequentpolicy reversals, the O. J. Simpson murder trial, and childmolestation charges against Michael Jackson. Both experimentsresulted in significant third-person effects that did not dependupon having the same respondents answer both questions; meansfor single-question (no contrast) conditions did not differsignificantly from comparable means in two-question (contrast)conditions. No significant main effects of question order wereobserved. In Experiment 1 a significant interaction betweenpolitical knowledge and question order was found, such thata negative relationship between knowledge and perceived impacton oneself emerged when the ‘self’ question followeda question about perceived effects on others. Experiment 2 replicatedthe interaction for two of three news stimuli, and indicatedthat it was not a product of differences in the personal importanceof issues. Implications of these results for understanding thethird-person effect are discussed. 相似文献
5.
The 1988 American election witnessed a vote for the status quoand divided government, as the Republicans retained the WhiteHouse and the Democrats triumphed for Congressional and stateoffices. The best explanation is that peace and prosperity leftmost Americans satisfied with the kind of government they havehad for the past eight years. Basically the same factors that have correlated with votingDemocratic or Republican since 1934 did so in 1988, with theexception of the White South, which started a movement awayfrom the Democrats in 1948 when Harry Truman ran on a civilrights background, and gradually moved over to overwhelmingsupport for the Republicans. A gender gap, with women votingdisproportionately Democratic also opened in 1980 and has continuedthrough 1988. It seemingly reflects feminists' concerns, sinceworking and single women go Democratic, while ‘homemakers’are much more Republican. The election results point up the existence of two majorities,a Republican presidential one which reflects the identificationof Democratic nominees with permissive liberalism, rejectedby most Americans, and a Democratic one for the other officers,which is related to legislators supporting the interests andvalues of their constituents, the majority of whom favor a governmentwhich is helpful to the underprivileged and to people like themselves. 相似文献
6.
Annis Lee Adams 《Public Services Quarterly》2020,16(2):95-100
Abstract2020 is an election year in the United States. As we know from both past elections and the current election season, mudslinging, hyperbole, misinformation campaigns, and fake news proliferate the media landscape. Finding and recognizing reliable, accurate, nonpartisan election information can be challenging. Fortunately, several websites offer reliable, accurate, nonpartisan, and balanced information on the election and about voting. Some sources include information on how to register to vote, who can register to vote, and explain voting rights. Other sources provide links to or compile information on candidate voting records, where candidates get their funding, where they stand on issues, and fact check their statements. And, still others allow voters to get personalized information about what will be on their specific ballots, such as all the candidates running for local, state, and national offices, as well as bond measures, propositions, and other ballot initiatives. The reviews included in this issue’s column comprise a sampling of reliable election websites spanning the various election topics mentioned above. Librarians can feel confident recommending these sites to their patrons looking for accurate, balanced, reliable election and voting information. 相似文献
7.
《Government Information Quarterly》2021,38(4):101598
The literature dealing with undecided voters – a growing group of citizens in many democracies that can determine who wins in election campaigns – suggests two very different profiles. The first approach describes undecided voters as being generally uninformed about politics, while the second sees undecideds as sophisticated citizens who follow a campaign closely before making their final voting decision. The current study tries to make sense of this contrast, while examining differences between sophisticated and less sophisticated undecideds (their level of sophistication was based on their political interest and knowledge). Using two panel surveys, conducted before and after the April 2019 elections in Israel (N = 1427; N = 912), we examine a number of hypotheses about differences in terms of the undecided citizens' demographic backgrounds, how they search for political information during the election campaign, how they come to make their final decisions, and whether they ended up voting. The findings indicate that the typical sophisticated undecided voter is a citizen from a more privileged social background, exhibits greater trust in traditional media, consumes more news to follow the campaign (from various traditional news outlets and social media), is more likely to carry out online discussions about the elections, is more likely to base his or her decision on policy issues, is more likely to debate between parties within the same ideological camp (internal floater), and more likely to vote than less sophisticated undecided voters. Our typology, which makes a distinction between sophisticated and less sophisticated undecided voters, as well as these findings (and the comparison to the committed voters), can help political scientists and practitioners widen their understanding regarding this important group of voters in todays' complex political reality. 相似文献
8.
The tendency for individuals to perceive a greater impact ofmedia messages on others than on the self, Davison (1983) argues,has led to a number of policy decisions in which éliteshave exercised control of mass media messages in order to ‘protect’vulnerable others. The third-person effect has been well-documentedin experimental research with little attention to its theoreticalunderpinnings, or its antecedents or consequences. This articleargues that the third-person effect can be understood throughattribution theory, especially through the concepts of self-servingbias and effectance motivation. Second, it demonstrates thatthe third-person effect is influenced by certain social structuralfactors, media use patterns, and perceived harm of content.Finally, while perceptions of harm are related to perceptionsof influence, influence does not play a role in predicting supportfor external control of media content, while perceived harmhas a significant impact. 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACTThis study introduces and evaluates the robustness of different volumetric, sentiment, and social network approaches to predict the elections in three Asian countries – Malaysia, India, and Pakistan from Twitter posts. We find that predictive power of social media performs well for India and Pakistan but is not effective for Malaysia. Overall, we find that it is useful to consider the recency of Twitter posts while using it to predict a real outcome, such as an election result. Sentiment information mined using machine learning models was the most accurate predictor of election outcomes. Social network information is stable despite sudden surges in political discussions, for e.g. around elections-related news events. Methods combining sentiment and volume information, or sentiment and social network information, are effective at predicting smaller vote shares, for e.g. vote shares in the case of independent candidates and regional parties. We conclude with a detailed discussion on the caveats of social media analysis for predicting real-world outcomes and recommendations for future work. 相似文献
10.
By studying candidates’ Facebook fan pages and rolling poll data during the Hong Kong Legislative Council election in 2016, this article aims at examining the relationships between candidates’ campaign performance on social media, electoral momentum, and vote shares. We contend that, under specific contextual conditions, social media campaigns could affect candidates’ momentum during the election period, which can in turn affect vote shares. We also examine how the relationships between social media performance and electoral momentum vary according to the candidates’ background characteristics, including age, political affiliation, incumbency status, and scale of the campaign of the political group to which the candidates belong. The results show that candidates’ social media performance can indeed predict vote shares indirectly via the mediation of electoral momentum. The predictive power of social media performance is stronger for pro-democracy candidates, incumbents, and candidates belonging to political groups with larger election campaigns. 相似文献
11.
This study tests the agenda-setting hypothesis for the environmentalissue in Hong Kong from 1983 to 1995. It was found that theagenda-setting hypothesis was supported for the initial periodof five and a half years. In the subsequent period of sevenand a half years, despite the increased media coverage of theissues, there was a significant drop in the perceived salienceof the environmental problem. This may be due to the dilutionof public attention as a result of diversity in the news agendaand reporting of local environmental problems as ‘soft’news. It was also found that the environmental issue failedto compete with other prominent issues directly affecting thepublic. The mass media played a much less important role inkeeping the environmental issue on the public agenda at thelater stage. 相似文献
12.
The Role of Communication in Public Opinion Processes: Understanding the Impacts of Intrapersonal, Media, and Social Filters 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hoffman Lindsay H.; Glynn Carroll J.; Huge Michael E.; Sietman Rebecca Border; Thomson Tiffany 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》2007,19(3):287-312
This study examined multiple factors associated with the processof public opinion including relevant predispositions, mediause, interpersonal discussion, and perceptions of communityopinion in order to test a theoretical model of public opinion.We conceptualized these factors as intrapersonal, media, andsocial ‘filters’ within the public opinion process.To test the impact of these filters, we conducted a survey withtwo independent samples—the first sample was collectedduring the introduction phase of a community ballot issue andthe second just a week before the issue vote. Findings indicateall three filters impacted public opinion regarding the ballotissue. Within these filters, important subprocesses were analyzedto better understand each filter's contribution to the formationof public opinion. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression equationsused to test the proposed process model revealed that the intrapersonalfilter accounted for a substantial amount of the overall variancein public opinion, but that media and social filters were alsoimportant predictors. Results highlight the importance of communicationvariables in the formation of public opinion. Received for publication May 4, 2006. Accepted for publication April 19, 2007. 相似文献
13.
Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates. 相似文献
14.
The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices. 相似文献
15.
This article describes a way for the effects of portrait photosin the mass media to be investigated by combining split ballotexperiments and media content analysis. In a first step, visualsignals with distinct effects on perception are identified onthe basis of theory and of empirical findings from the fieldsof psychology and behavior research. These signals must be gesturesand facial expressions that can easily be made the object ofexperimental variation and allow for easy coding in contentanalyses. Accumulating a great number of such individual experimentswould provide a ‘map’ of the effects of visual signalsand their relative strengths. Incorporating these signals, ina second step, into the codebooks used for media content analysiswould enable a more accurate appraisal than previously possibleof the influence of optical commentary in mass media reporting.The results of the first step of such an endeavor are presented:a split ballot experiment conducted by the Institute fürDemoskopie Allensbach into the effects of the angle at whichone holds one’s head and the gesture whereby one’shand covers the lower half of one’s face. The angle ofthe depicted person’s head has a stronger influence onrespondents than the gesture does. 相似文献
16.
THE MAGNIFICATION AND MINIMIZATION OF SOCIAL CLEAVAGES BY THE BROADCAST AND NARROWCAST NEWS MEDIA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper provides an empirical test of the argument that thebroadcast newsmedia help create a ‘national’ publicopinion and mute localized opinion rooted insociodemographiccharacteristics. Using Canadian data, we provide evidence thatmajor social cleavages are reduced as exposure to the broadcastmedia goes up. However, we also provide evidence that exposureto media directed toward segmented aaudiences exacerbates socialcleavages. We conclude by speculating that public opinion maybecome more polarized around sociodemographic cleavages as narrowcastmedia become more dominant and we suggest that this has implicationsfor the study of media effectsusing survey research. 相似文献
17.
Shapiro Robert Y.; Young John T.; Patterson Kelly D.; Blumenfeld Jill E.; Cifu Douglas A.; Offenhartz Sara M.; Tsekerides Ted E. 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1991,3(4):340-365
In this article the authors argue that studies of the influenceof the mass media on public support for presidential candidatesin primary elections should return to the social pyschologicalmodel of attitude change. This model should take into account,however, that in the real world, unlike laboratory settings,randomization and complete controls of variables are not possible,and rational and strategic choice considerations come into play,along with the cumulative effects of new information on aggregateopinion. The variables found to be relevant to attitude change,especially the characteristics of the communicator and the communication,have not been studied systematically in natural settings. Littleis known about how new information unrelated to electoral ‘momentum’affects the public's evaluations and support for candidates.A fuller explanation is needed of what are complex media influenceson candidate support in primary elections—including especiallythose messages conveyed through the media which tend to be distinctiveand most accessible to memory: information about the viabiltiyof candidates; positive messages and images conveyed directlyfrom the candidates themselves and (to a lesser extent) fromother major party leaders who support or oppose them; and, ofspecial theoretical importance, the ostensibly credible newscommentary about the candidates. 相似文献
18.
For from being inevitable, as it may now appear, Clinton's victoryover Bush in the 1992 U.S. presidential election required aconfluence of several largely unforeseen developments. For one,though the U.S. economy was recovering, sluggishly, in late1991 and then more robustly in the election year itself, deeppublic pessimism about the economy's status developed nonetheless,leading to a vague but highly insistent call to ‘Do something!’In addition, the independent candidacy of Ross Perot becameespecially injurious to the Bush campaign, because theTexasbillionaire's attacks on the President appeared so disinterested.Perot cut deeply into the political and attitudinal groups thatin recent elections have been giving generally strong supportto Republican nominees. Despite these and other developmentswhich led to Bush's defeat just 20 months after he had appeareddominant politically, however, the underlying political alignmentof policy and social groups changed little in 1992. 相似文献
19.
Greece became an EEC member in 1981, following a parliamentaryvote in the then New Democracy (conservative)–controlledparliament. Opinion polls indicated though that were a referendumheld at the time, membership would have been rejected, as thegovernment had lost its popular support (and lost power in thecourse of that year) and an across-the-board anti-western majorityhad emerged in a country whose people's national identity wasfirst defined during and as a defense against the crusades.Ten years later, there exists in Greece a very large consensusin favor of EEC membership which includes even the communistleft, at least programmatically. The spectacular, and unprecedentedamong Community countries, pro-EEC conversion is the subjectof this paper. First, using the European Commission's Eurobarometerand Eurodim's Helleno-barometer data, the evolution of Greekpublic opinion towards the EEC is documented. Secondly, thetrend data in the various voting groups show that this conversionis basically the result of the transformation of the socialistelectorate from anti-EEC to pro-EEC, but with a lag behind thesimilar change in the party's (PASOK) policies during its eight-yearrule (1981–9). Thirdly, evidence is provided that anti-westernismhas not died out in Greece, but that it has both mellowed andbecome ‘selective’. So, we conclude that the pro-EECconversion was not the result of some general ‘Westernization’of Greek public opinion, but the outcome of a ‘learningexperience’: during their country's ten-year EEC membership,the Greeks discovered that the benefits from this internationalcommitment far outweighed the costs. In fact, it is argued thatthe pro-EEC conversion of Greek public opinion has contributedto the mellowing of its anti-westernism: whereas the crusadeswere instrumental in cutting the Greeks from Europe, the EECappears now the vehicle of their reintegration into a worldin whose development they have historically played a major role. 相似文献
20.
The televised debates in the 2016 presidential election took place between two controversial candidates, Hillary Clinton and her opponent, Donald Trump, who faced a deeply divided electorate of highly opinioned voters that had already decided on their supported candidates. How did viewing the debates influence them? Would the debates reinforce their existing opinion, or provide them with useful information about the candidates? Drawing on Davison’s third-person effect hypothesis, this study aims to shed light on the question of how viewing the debates influences voters relative to others in the era of social media. The study focuses on the need for orientation as a predictor of debate exposure and the behavioral consequences of debate exposure for electoral engagement on social media. Findings show that partisans are not impacted by viewing the debates, but respondents perceived Independents to be most vulnerable. Further, need for orientation moderated the relationship between debate exposure and perceived effects of the debates on self, which prompted respondents to mobilize support for the candidate of their choice and to vote for their supported candidates. 相似文献