对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

石耀霖  刘杰  张国民 《中国科学院研究生院学报》2000,(1)

采用R评分方法 ,对中国地震局 1 990到 1 998年的年度地震预报进行了统计和评估 .随机猜测预报R为 0 ,完全准确预报R为 1 .我国 90年代的年度预报R评分平均为 0 .1 84.如果把地震局实际预报与选取最大背景概率地区预报相结合 ,可以使R评分提高到 0 .336 .统计表明 ,中国年度地震预报对 5级以上地震的预报水平还不高 ,特别是在人烟稀少、台站缺乏的高地震背景概率区 ,预报效果较低 ;但在人口密集、经济发达的重点监测地区 ,中国地震局年度预报高于随机预报 ,实际预报取得了一定效果 .  相似文献   

Learning earthquake design and construction     

C. V. R. Murty 《Resonance》2005,10(3):92-95

  相似文献   

The evolution of the operational earthquake forecasting community of practice: the L’Aquila communication crisis as a triggering event for organizational renewal     

Deanna D. Sellnow  Joel Iverson  Timothy L. Sellnow 《Journal of Applied Communication Research》2017,45(2):121-139

The scientific community of earthquake experts has long grappled with how to communicate earthquake probabilities successfully to non-scientific publics. Perhaps most central to their concern is the widely held belief that scientists can actually predict earthquakes when, in fact, they cannot. The potential consequences of this miscommunication problem were appallingly realized as a result of the 6 April 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy. Failed risk communication among scientists, a public official, and L’Aquila residents prior to the earthquake resulted in 309 deaths, 1500 injuries, and 65,000 people displaced from their homes, as well as the sentencing of six scientists and one public official to six years in prison for manslaughter. This paper examines how and why the L’Aquila Earthquake communication crisis ultimately redefined the international scientific earthquake community of practice and its discourse beyond that of community resilience to organizational learning and renewal.  相似文献   

Empirical examination of the theory of disaster marathon: A case study of the local television coverage following the 2014 Ludian,China earthquake     

Yi Wang  Hans Martial Louis-Charles 《The Communication Review》2017,20(4):246-276

Disaster marathon was proposed by media communication scholars to differentiate the genre of disaster television broadcasting from media events. However, its theoretical framework is limited by its omission of findings from disaster social science literature, and its lack of examinations of marathons of domestic natural disasters. Using the August 2014 Yunnan (China) Television Station broadcast The Special Report on the August 3 Earthquake in Ludian, Yunnan, we conduct a qualitative content analysis to empirically examine the disaster marathon concept for natural disasters. During the content analysis, three themes emerge: authorities’ command and control, the involvement of armed forces, and convergence of social support. Our case study findings contradict the disaster marathon conceptualization and conclude that the local television coverage following a natural disaster can also be performed as a series of conventional media events and is consistent with the established disaster coverage literature.  相似文献   

混沌反演算法在地震预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

沈连山  李吉  宋海荣  王乐群 《大连大学学报》2001,22(4):105-110

混沌动力学引人到地震预报之中，介绍混沌反演算法．在王乐群［１］等长期观测获得的地声数据基础上，利用混沌反演计算理论，建立地震混沌动力系统的数学模型并对地声进行预测；结合Ｎ型发震规律和著名的Ｇ－Ｒ关系，提出基于地声对地震行为进行中短期的预测预报；计算实例预测出的地声数据反映出动力系统出现混沌行为．  相似文献   

丹江口水库诱发地震的趋势及对策研究     

辛晓十  江富建 《南阳师范学院学报》2005,4(9):65-67

从水库诱发地震的环境条件出发，结合丹江口水库的实际情况，估计了丹江口大坝加高后的水库诱发地震趋势，最后提出了丹江口水库区安全运行和防震减灾的对策建议。  相似文献   

单层砖柱厂房的抗震设计     

杨庭发 《凯里学院学报》2006,24(6):84-85

根据国家标准《建筑抗震设计规范》编制的原则,通过对单层砖柱厂房震害分析,提出相应的抗震设计方法.  相似文献   

5．12震后反思学校体育教学     

吴红豫 《重庆第二师范学院学报》2008,21(6):125-127

有感于5．12抗震救灾英雄少年的卓越表现。反思学校体育教学,应该在教学中具有培养和发展学生身体素质和人体基本运动能力,具有良好的身体素质和心理品质,当自然灾害突然降临,才能够在第一时间抓住逃生机会成功自救并且机智勇敢地救助他人。  相似文献   

突发性灾难事件报道的一次突破——解读汶川大地震报道     

蒋含平  夏明桢 《洛阳师范学院学报》2008,27(4):7-10

5.12汶川大地震发生在《中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例》实施12天后,国内媒体突破了以往突发性灾难事件的报道模式,在第一时间报道灾难消息,报道新闻更为公开透明;媒体全面参与、深度介入事件的过程,充分发挥了传递信息、整合社会情绪的作用;媒体报道也较好的体现了专业精神与人文情怀。在此次地震报道中也有一些值得反思的地方,包括如何处理好报道的及时和全面的关系、职业要求与人文关怀的关系。  相似文献   

国外创伤后应激障碍干预模式及其启示     

扶长青 《安阳师范学院学报》2008,(4):99-101

5·12地震给人们心理健康造成极大损伤,这对我国的危机干预体系是一个严峻的考验。而国外的干预模式则相对成熟．这些不同的干预模式可分为三类：一是阶段划分模式,即针对干预过程不同阶段的特点采取不同的措施。二是整合模式,即将不同的干预模式、支持资源加以整合。三是特异性模式,即针对特殊人群、特殊情境的干预策略。我们虽然不能照搬外国的干预模式,但其思路与技术、经验与教训还是值得借鉴的。  相似文献